Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 1, 2019 10:06:56 GMT -5
This is just my sheet's forecast combined with a Monte Carlo simulation to play the rest of the season 5000 times. This does not take into account injuries that have occurred in Spring Training. They are built assuming that my team is correct about how good teams are. Future playoff odds reports will be adjusted to reflect season-to-date performance levels.
The percentages after each team are playoff% and bye%.
AL East (1.02 playoff teams):
New York Yankees: 81.4% / 12.6%
Toronto Blue Jays: 18.4% / 0.7%
Baltimore Orioles: 1.4% / 0.1%
Boston Red Sox: 0.3% / 0.0%
AL Central (1.17 playoff teams):
Chicago White Sox: 63.2% / 11.6%
Cleveland Indians: 52.7% / 10.7%
Minnesota Twins: 0.8% / 0.1%
Detroit Tigers: 0.0% / 0.0%
AL West (1.76 playoff teams):
Oakland Athletics: 94.4% / 60.0%
Colorado Rockies: 81.0% / 22.1%
Seattle Mariners: 1.0% / 0.1%
Los Angeles Angels: 0.0% / 0.0%
AL South (2.05 playoff teams):
Texas Rangers: 84.3% / 35.9%
Kansas City Royals: 81.8% / 33.4%
Houston Astros: 35.6% / 5.4%
Tampa Bay Rays: 3.4% / 0.2%
AL Observations: My sheet is perpetually optimistic about Toronto's possibility of winning the division; they have a good enough roster to sneak into the mid-high 80s on an up-year, and if the Yankees happen to have a down-year at the same time . . . in theory it's doable. Take the AL Central numbers with a grain of salt, as both Cleveland and Chicago are almost certainly better than they appear here. That said, the AL has *a lot* of quality potential Wild-Card teams. And resist the urge to suggest that "______ is really good, they have a much higher chance of winning their division than that" I'll remind you that both Oakland and San Diego, the two teams everyone reasonably expected to be the best in their respective leagues, failed to win their division, and one of them missed the playoffs. Shit happens. These odds try and reflect that.
NL East (1.20 playoff teams):
New York Mets: 55.5% / 5.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates: 38.8% / 1.9%
Philadelphia Phillies: 16.1% / 0.3%
Montreal Expos: 9.3% / 0.2%
NL Central (2.30 playoff teams):
St. Louis Cardinals: 94.2% / 41.0%
Cincinnati Reds: 80.3% / 13.2%
Milwaukee Brewers: 55.2% / 4.4%
Chicago Cubs: 0.2% / 0.0%
NL West (1.49 playoff teams):
San Diego Padres: 97.4% / 63.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers: 42.7% / 2.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks: 9.3% / 0.2%
San Francisco Giants: 0.0% / 0.0%
NL South (1.01 playoff teams):
Washington Nationals: 99.8% / 58.5%
Atlanta Braves: 0.6% / 0.0%
Carolina Warhounds: 0.5% / 0.0%
Miami Marlins: 0.0% / 0.0%
NL Observations: I don't think Washington's 99.8% surprises anyone; it's the perfect combination of great team in a division with three rebuilding teams. The NL East (if my sheet is right about the Mets not being super-strong, which it always predicts (and so far incorrectly)) could be a really interesting division. The sheet sees the gap between the teams not being very large, and if true, that means that anyone could walk out with the Division. Montreal's 9.3% may seem low, but it's by far the highest for any 4th place team.
The percentages after each team are playoff% and bye%.
AL East (1.02 playoff teams):
New York Yankees: 81.4% / 12.6%
Toronto Blue Jays: 18.4% / 0.7%
Baltimore Orioles: 1.4% / 0.1%
Boston Red Sox: 0.3% / 0.0%
AL Central (1.17 playoff teams):
Chicago White Sox: 63.2% / 11.6%
Cleveland Indians: 52.7% / 10.7%
Minnesota Twins: 0.8% / 0.1%
Detroit Tigers: 0.0% / 0.0%
AL West (1.76 playoff teams):
Oakland Athletics: 94.4% / 60.0%
Colorado Rockies: 81.0% / 22.1%
Seattle Mariners: 1.0% / 0.1%
Los Angeles Angels: 0.0% / 0.0%
AL South (2.05 playoff teams):
Texas Rangers: 84.3% / 35.9%
Kansas City Royals: 81.8% / 33.4%
Houston Astros: 35.6% / 5.4%
Tampa Bay Rays: 3.4% / 0.2%
AL Observations: My sheet is perpetually optimistic about Toronto's possibility of winning the division; they have a good enough roster to sneak into the mid-high 80s on an up-year, and if the Yankees happen to have a down-year at the same time . . . in theory it's doable. Take the AL Central numbers with a grain of salt, as both Cleveland and Chicago are almost certainly better than they appear here. That said, the AL has *a lot* of quality potential Wild-Card teams. And resist the urge to suggest that "______ is really good, they have a much higher chance of winning their division than that" I'll remind you that both Oakland and San Diego, the two teams everyone reasonably expected to be the best in their respective leagues, failed to win their division, and one of them missed the playoffs. Shit happens. These odds try and reflect that.
NL East (1.20 playoff teams):
New York Mets: 55.5% / 5.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates: 38.8% / 1.9%
Philadelphia Phillies: 16.1% / 0.3%
Montreal Expos: 9.3% / 0.2%
NL Central (2.30 playoff teams):
St. Louis Cardinals: 94.2% / 41.0%
Cincinnati Reds: 80.3% / 13.2%
Milwaukee Brewers: 55.2% / 4.4%
Chicago Cubs: 0.2% / 0.0%
NL West (1.49 playoff teams):
San Diego Padres: 97.4% / 63.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers: 42.7% / 2.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks: 9.3% / 0.2%
San Francisco Giants: 0.0% / 0.0%
NL South (1.01 playoff teams):
Washington Nationals: 99.8% / 58.5%
Atlanta Braves: 0.6% / 0.0%
Carolina Warhounds: 0.5% / 0.0%
Miami Marlins: 0.0% / 0.0%
NL Observations: I don't think Washington's 99.8% surprises anyone; it's the perfect combination of great team in a division with three rebuilding teams. The NL East (if my sheet is right about the Mets not being super-strong, which it always predicts (and so far incorrectly)) could be a really interesting division. The sheet sees the gap between the teams not being very large, and if true, that means that anyone could walk out with the Division. Montreal's 9.3% may seem low, but it's by far the highest for any 4th place team.