Sansterre's NL Forecast - Too Early Edition
Mar 25, 2019 10:53:12 GMT -5
BlueJaysGM_Fin, Sean_RedsGM, and 4 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 25, 2019 10:53:12 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today (start of Spring Training).
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) The real forecast is more extreme. These were all regressed to the mean by 20%.
NL East (+0.6 wins):
New York Mets: 86.3 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 83.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 79.5 wins
Montreal Expos: 77.4 wins
NL Central (+4.6 wins):
St. Louis Cardinals: 95.2 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 91.0 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 87.2 wins
Chicago Cubs: 68.8 wins
NL West (+1.2 wins):
San Diego Padres: 97.9 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 85.0 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 79.1 wins
San Francisco Giants: 67.0 wins
NL South (-6.4 wins):
Washington Nationals: 97.0 wins
Atlanta Braves: 70.7 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 68.8 wins
Miami Marlins: 61.7 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego and Washington
Seeds 3&4: St. Louis and New York Mets
Wild Cards: Cincinnati and Milwaukee
Next Two Out: Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh
Observations:
1) First off, according to my sheet the balance of power has shifted; the AL is forecast to be the better league this year.
2) Also, according to my sheet, the NL Central is about to become the tough division in the NL, no longer the NL West. Of course, much of this is due to the somewhat dramatic predictions for Arizona and Milwaukee, but still.
3) Even I was surprised that the sheet puts the Brewers as the fifth best team in the NL. In general I expect my sheet to miss high on my team, as my team is built on the same principles as the sheet, so I'm sort of inadvertently maximizing myself for this forecast.
4) I was genuinely shocked, as I am every year, by how low my sheet has Fin. The Mets, the Indians and the White Sox are the three teams that have exceeded their forecast by 10+ wins each of the last two years. Perhaps this season will shed some light on whether or not this is a fluke, or simply a reflection of their quality management.
5) I wasn't surprised to see San Diego and Washington ranked as the top two teams in the NL. I was a little surprised by how high St. Louis is, but perhaps I shouldn't, as their lineup is top-to-bottom quality.
6) The NL East, as forecast, could be a wild ride. The Expos have held steady, the Phillies have improved considerably, the Pirates have dropped way less than you'd think from having lost both Boucher and Jue. And the Mets are strangely only considered a high 80s team. Of course, last year Fin stomped everybody, and the same may well happen this year.
7) I don't know how to explain Arizona's low forecast. I guess we'll see how it goes.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today (start of Spring Training).
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) The real forecast is more extreme. These were all regressed to the mean by 20%.
NL East (+0.6 wins):
New York Mets: 86.3 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 83.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 79.5 wins
Montreal Expos: 77.4 wins
NL Central (+4.6 wins):
St. Louis Cardinals: 95.2 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 91.0 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 87.2 wins
Chicago Cubs: 68.8 wins
NL West (+1.2 wins):
San Diego Padres: 97.9 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 85.0 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 79.1 wins
San Francisco Giants: 67.0 wins
NL South (-6.4 wins):
Washington Nationals: 97.0 wins
Atlanta Braves: 70.7 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 68.8 wins
Miami Marlins: 61.7 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego and Washington
Seeds 3&4: St. Louis and New York Mets
Wild Cards: Cincinnati and Milwaukee
Next Two Out: Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh
Observations:
1) First off, according to my sheet the balance of power has shifted; the AL is forecast to be the better league this year.
2) Also, according to my sheet, the NL Central is about to become the tough division in the NL, no longer the NL West. Of course, much of this is due to the somewhat dramatic predictions for Arizona and Milwaukee, but still.
3) Even I was surprised that the sheet puts the Brewers as the fifth best team in the NL. In general I expect my sheet to miss high on my team, as my team is built on the same principles as the sheet, so I'm sort of inadvertently maximizing myself for this forecast.
4) I was genuinely shocked, as I am every year, by how low my sheet has Fin. The Mets, the Indians and the White Sox are the three teams that have exceeded their forecast by 10+ wins each of the last two years. Perhaps this season will shed some light on whether or not this is a fluke, or simply a reflection of their quality management.
5) I wasn't surprised to see San Diego and Washington ranked as the top two teams in the NL. I was a little surprised by how high St. Louis is, but perhaps I shouldn't, as their lineup is top-to-bottom quality.
6) The NL East, as forecast, could be a wild ride. The Expos have held steady, the Phillies have improved considerably, the Pirates have dropped way less than you'd think from having lost both Boucher and Jue. And the Mets are strangely only considered a high 80s team. Of course, last year Fin stomped everybody, and the same may well happen this year.
7) I don't know how to explain Arizona's low forecast. I guess we'll see how it goes.