Playoff Odds - 7/5/49
Jan 28, 2019 9:11:44 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, BlueJaysGM_Fin, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 28, 2019 9:11:44 GMT -5
AL East | Record | WAR Rating | Exp. Wins | Playoff % | Bye % | Record Delta | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYA | 45-37 | +0.73 | 89.4 | 90.8% | 18.4% | 11-8 | +2.7% | +0.3 |
BOS | 43-39 | -0.02 | 80.8 | 13.4% | 0.4% | 11-8 | +3.2% | +1.8 |
TOR | 35-47 | -0.02 | 74.3 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 5-14 | -10.9% | -4.9 |
BAL | 33-49 | -0.88 | 68.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6-13 | -0.1% | -2.5 |
AL Central | ||||||||
CLE | 54-28 | +1.63 | 100.8 | 99.7% | 91.9% | 13-6 | +0.6% | +3.1 |
CHA | 48-34 | +0.99 | 90.8 | 84.9% | 4.8% | 11-7 | +10.4% | +2.5 |
MIN | 45-37 | +0.19 | 84.2 | 25.8% | 0.3% | 11-8 | +10.5% | +2.6 |
DET | 28-53 | -1.93 | 60.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4-14 | 0.0% | -4.0 |
AL West | ||||||||
COL | 46-36 | +1.45 | 92.9 | 93.8% | 50.9% | 13-7 | +9.1% | +2.2 |
OAK | 44-38 | +0.36 | 89.7 | 76.6% | 17.7% | 9-10 | -16.9% | -3.8 |
SEA | 34-48 | -1.56 | 66.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9-11 | 0.0% | +1.8 |
LAA | 32-50 | -1.61 | 62.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11-9 | 0.0% | +4.3 |
AL South | ||||||||
KCA | 46-38 | -0.03 | 85.9 | 57.1% | 4.4% | 13-7 | +22.4% | +2.5 |
TEX | 40-42 | +0.54 | 83.3 | 30.1% | 2.1% | 7-12 | -39.2% | -3.9 |
HOU | 43-40 | 0.00 | 82.4 | 26.7% | 1.3% | 12-7 | +16.8% | +3.3 |
TBA | 38-44 | -0.96 | 74.8 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 7-13 | -7.6% | -3.9 |
Swings (Playoff Delta / EW Delta):
Toronto (-10.9% / -4.9): The Blue Jays had a terrible set of sims, going 5-14 and dropping their WAR considerably. They're now ten games behind the Yankees and this is probably the end for Toronto's playoff hopes this season.
Los Angeles (0.0% / +4.3): The Angels trade Terrence Henderson and immediately pull off a winning set of sims! Huzzah! For this franchise, a season that ends above 60 wins is a solid achievement and that's looking likely at this point.
Detroit (0.0% / -4.0): Detroit continues their meteoric descent (does it make any sense to have a meteoric rise? Meteors fall for crap's sake!).
Texas (-39.2% / -3.9): Whoa nellie! Talk about a gut-punch. Texas has a bad stretch at the exact same time when both Kansas City *and* Houston step their game up. This isn't quite as bad as it looks; they may be 5 games behind Kansas City and 2.5 behind Houston, but they're still by any reasonable standard the best team in the division. Which means they can still definitely pull this out. But make no mistake; this is a bad position to be in.
Tampa Bay (-7.6% / -3.9): The Rays have a bad week with bad play and suddenly they're pretty much out of the playoff hunt.
Oakland (-16.9% / -3.8): It is a tribute to how optimistic the A's preseason forecast was that even two games out of the division lead, one game out of the Wild Card and with a pretty modest WAR rating, they're still being given a 3 in 4 chance of making the playoffs. It is wildly surprising how badly the Oakland bats (who aren't Carl Holmes) are playing. Carl Baird, Bryant Chaney, Esteban Mendez and Cisco Medina are all really struggling, and those guys are not bad hitters. It's still Oakland, and Mel Wolfe should be back soon, but this has been a weird season for them.
Houston (+16.8% / +3.3): The Astros have entered the Death Race for the AL South divisional crown. There's only maybe an 11% chance that the AL South sends a wild-card team this year, so it's all about the division. Houston has a decent record and is playing exactly average ball. But in the AL South this year that may be enough to put them in the playoffs.
Cleveland (+0.6% / +3.1): Cleveland continues to destroy everything in sight.
Minnesota (+10.5% / +2.6): Minnesota's 11-8 set of sims helped, but even more they were aided by the struggles of Oakland and Texas. They're playing solid ball with a solid record. But to make the playoffs they need to run down Chicago or outlast the A's and neither of those seem likely.
Chicago (+10.4% / +2.5): The White Sox keep piling on and now boast the 3rd best WAR and expected record in the AL. If it wasn't for those stupid Indians the White Sox would even have a solid shot at a bye. As it is they'll need to settle for an extremely likely 5th-seeded Wild Card berth.
Baltimore (-0.1% / -2.5): Baltimore has another brutal set of sims. Looks like next year they'll get a good shot at another top prospect to pair with Aubrey Fowler.
Kansas City (+22.4% / +2.5): The Royals are finally making a move! True, it's not the sexy 89-win move that my sheet had them at before the season but I'll take it! Even with them playing mediocre ball (sub-zero WAR rating) the Royals now have a big lead on the division and look to have a good shot at outlasting the competition to make their first playoffs in a long time!
Colorado (+9.1% / +2.2): The Rockies keep on chugging, moving past the A's in every appreciable way. They're now a 1 in 2 shot at a bye and dear God has it been a while since anyone besides the A's got a bye from that division. But Oakland is a dangerous team to have only a two-game lead on and Duane Hansen is out for the year. Colorado traded away their entire farm system (or thereabouts) to add Dave Peterson to pick up the slack, but Hansen is (by OPS+ and wRC+) the best pure hitter active in the league. Colorado's gone all-in this year, and they've timed it with Oakland really struggling. All the chips are in the center of the table. Let's see what you've been holding gentlemen!
AL Playoff Picture:
Byes: Cleveland (99.7% playoff), Colorado (93.8%)
Division Winners: Yankees (90.8%), Royals (57.1%)
Wild Cards: White Sox (84.9%), Athletics (76.6%)
Next Five Out: Texas (30.1%), Houston (26.7%), Minnesota (25.8%), Boston (13.4%), Tampa Bay (0.7%)
Odds that the listed six are the six playoff teams for the AL: 31.5%
NL East | Record | WAR Rating | Exp. Wins | Playoff% | Bye % | Record Delta | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYN | 47-35 | +0.57 | 89.9 | 88.2% | 8.7% | 10-9 | -4.1% | -0.9 |
PIT | 42-40 | +0.27 | 82.8 | 33.0% | 0.1% | 10-9 | +12.2% | +1.5 |
PHI | 41-41 | -0.17 | 77.9 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 11-8 | +0.3% | +2.3 |
MON | 37-45 | -0.59 | 73.9 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 6-13 | -8.7% | -4.6 |
NL Central | ||||||||
STL | 44-38 | +0.34 | 87.2 | 76.7% | 3.8% | 10-8 | +9.2% | +0.5 |
CIN | 42-39 | +0.14 | 85.6 | 55.2% | 2.1% | 8-10 | -22.2% | -2.8 |
MIL | 36-46 | -0.28 | 75.1 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 9-10 | -0.9% | -0.3 |
CHN | 32-50 | -1.09 | 64.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6-13 | -0.1% | -1.9 |
NL West | ||||||||
SDN | 53-29 | +2.01 | 102.3 | 100.0% | 86.2% | 9-10 | 0.0% | -2.2 |
ARI | 50-32 | +1.27 | 94.5 | 98.5% | 10.2% | 16-4 | +18.2% | +5.8 |
LAN | 40-42 | +0.74 | 82.6 | 34.2% | 0.0% | 9-10 | +1.2% | -0.2 |
SFN | 37-45 | -0.61 | 74.3 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 7-13 | -6.7% | -4.0 |
NL South | ||||||||
WAS | 52-30 | +1.18 | 98.1 | 100.0% | 83.9% | 12-7 | +0.2% | +2.3 |
ATL | 40-43 | -0.16 | 78.0 | 6.7% | 0.1% | 11-8 | +1.7% | +1.3 |
MIA | 35-47 | -0.77 | 68.7 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 10-10 | +0.1% | +2.6 |
CAR | 32-52 | -1.76 | 61.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9-11 | 0.0% | +0.9 |
Swings (playoff delta / EW delta):
Arizona (+18.2% / +5.8): Arizona makes good on last week's post by elevating their game even higher. The Diamondbacks went 16-4 and now have the second best WAR rating in the NL and are only 3 games behind San Diego. San Diego's Bye% actually dropped 8.6% because the Diamondbacks are now considered close enough to be a legitimate, if improbable, threat to San Diego's division-winning. This team is pretty much a lock for the playoffs.
Montreal (-8.7% / -4.6): Montreal is having every damned thing go wrong for them.
San Francisco (-6.7% / -4.0): The Giants wisely opted to stay out of the Dave Peterson sweepstakes, as their season continues its steady descent.
Cincinnati (-22.2% / -2.8): It looks as though I spoke too soon. The Reds have a weak set of sims leaving room for the Cardinals to move back on top. The Diamondbacks' ascent means that there's only one free wild-card spot. The Reds are going to need to work to stay ahead of the Dodgers and Pirates.
Miami (+0.1% / +2.6): Miami has a chance of making the playoffs! Sure it's not good, but it's there. In the meantime they pull together a nice 500 set of sims, improve their WAR rating and move their expected wins to 68.7. A 70+ win season is not out of the question.
Philadelphia (+0.3% / +2.3): The Phillies go 11-8 and make the push for an 80+ win season. The rough part is that even with that improvement their playoff odds only improved by 0.3%. When you start off behind, it takes a lot of work to catch up.
Washington (+0.2% / +2.3): The Nationals lock up a playoff spot as well as (for all intents and purposes) a bye with a strong 12-7 set of sims.
San Diego (0.0% / -2.2): The Padres have a disappointing 10-10 stretch, which was fluky as their WAR rating barely blinked. Even still, their playoff chances are locked in. And after all, with a 9.5-game lead on the division, even a 10-10 stretch won't threaten them right? Unless Arizona goes 16-4 . . . Let's not joke, San Diego still probably has this locked up. But the Padres can't coast; they have the misfortune of having the 2nd best team in the NL in their division. Bad luck for all involved. Unless you're not in the NL West. Then it's awesome.
Pittsburgh (+12.2% / +1.5): A +1.5 EW jump isn't usually enough to be a big deal in a playoff push for a 500 team, but coupled with the Reds' slip and the Pirates have a legitimate shot at snagging that last wild-card spot.
NL Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego (100.0% playoffs), Washington (100.0%)
Division Winners: Mets (88.2%), St. Louis (76.7%)
Wild Cards: Arizona (98.5%), Cincinnati (55.2%)
Next Five Out: Dodgers (34.2%), Pirates (33.0%), Braves (6.7%), Phillies (3.8%), Milwaukee (1.9%)
Chances that the six teams that make the playoffs for the NL are the ones listed: 36.9%