Post by MetDaMeats on Jul 27, 2022 11:21:22 GMT -5
Hey everyone! I got really busy last year so I wasn't able to keep up with my Albatross lists for... 3 WHOLE SEASONS? Sheesh. I've been slacking. In case you haven't experienced one yet, this is my superficial analysis of the longest and most expensive contracts in the league. As usual I want to clarify that this is all in good fun and not meant to be taken super seriously. Some contracts never quite work and others take a sudden downward turn. Either way, it happens to us all so please don't take anything said below as a personal criticism.
LEGEND:
* A great contract. No need to worry.
** Has some downside, but could make you look pretty smart.
*** A few red flags that could go either way.
**** This contract may be having a negative impact on the team.
***** Severe Albatross potential on every level.
Baltimore Orioles
**** (New) Ricardo Ramallo (SP)
Boston Red Sox
**** (New) Antonio Gallegos (SP)
Chicago White Sox
*** (New) Pepe Quintana (SP)
** (New) Jesse Vega (RF)
Cleveland Indians
*** (New) Dan Nicholson (LF)
** (New) Steve Mathis (SP)
Colorado Rockies
**** (+2 stars) Gilberto Vasquez (SP)
*** (New) Lucas Winters (SP)
*** (New) Mike Kelly (SP)
*** (New) Tommy Groves (SP)
Detroit Tigers
** (New) Luis Martinez (1B)
* (No change) Dave Baker (RF)
* (New) Pete Powell (3B)
Houston Astros
** (+1 star) Manny Rivera (2B)
* (-1 star) Berhanu Pnyango (SP)
* (New) Jin Daiwaka (1B)
* (No change) Paul Burke (SP)
Kansas City Royals
** (New) Angel Chavez (CL)
Los Angeles Angels
** (No change) Kenzaburo Sato (CF)
Minnesota Twins
*** (No change) Ramon Crus (1B/2B/SS/3B)
New York Yankees
***** (New) Fernando Cruz (SP)
*** (New) Roy Pike (SP)
Oakland Athletics
*** (+2 stars) Jaime Lopez (CF)
** (+1 star) Pablo Diaz (1B)
** (New) Zg Odhiambo (LF)
* (New) Andres Ortiz (SS)
* (New) Guillermo Hernandez (SP)
Seattle Mariners
** (New) Hidetsugu Fujii (1B)
Tampa Bay Rays
*** (+1 stars) Fernando Gutierrez (SP)
** (+1 star) Yusuke Tanaka (RF)
Texas Rangers
*** (New) Claudio Valenzuela (SS)
* (+1 star) Makalani Korra (CF)
Toronto Blue Jays
*** (New) Brian McSimon (1B/3B)
LEGEND:
* A great contract. No need to worry.
** Has some downside, but could make you look pretty smart.
*** A few red flags that could go either way.
**** This contract may be having a negative impact on the team.
***** Severe Albatross potential on every level.
Baltimore Orioles
**** (New) Ricardo Ramallo (SP)
- $68 Mill through 2065.
- I feel so weird about him. He’s got 3 perfect pitches, maximum stamina, and top tier movement and stuff. But his control is bare minimum for what is acceptable at the major league level. I can understand wanting to give him max money, but he’ll never earn it while he leads the league in walks.
Boston Red Sox
**** (New) Antonio Gallegos (SP)
- $48.8 Mill through 2065.
- $24.4 Mill team option in 2066 with a $6.5 Mill buyout.
- $24.4 Mill team option in 2067 with a $6.5 Mill buyout.
- He was always a serviceable innings-eater when he pitched for the Twins but signing with Boston has revealed how borderline his abilities were. He hasn’t actually changed that much. He's just walking a few more batters and striking out a few less. Those tiny changes have rendered him replacement level.
Chicago White Sox
*** (New) Pepe Quintana (SP)
- $22 Mill through 2064.
- $21 Mill player option in 2065.
- He’s on the back end of his career and he’s an injury away from being out for the season at any time. However, if he can make it through the season he still has some value. I’d call him a step or two above an innings-eater at this point.
** (New) Jesse Vega (RF)
- $112 Mill through 206.
- $20 Mill player option in 2061.
- Vega is a classic speed and contact guy. The one thing that makes me concerned about his longevity is his mediocre defensive ability. A guy with his batting profile looks a lot different when you’re suddenly forced to move him to DH.
Cleveland Indians
*** (New) Dan Nicholson (LF)
- $69.5 Mill through 2067.
- $16.5 Mill team option in 2068 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- $16.5 Mill team option in 2069 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- He’s a strong example of what I call the “pyramid” batting profile. Lower contact and K avoidance, middling gap and eye, with peak power. I find that these players have high ceilings but obnoxiously low floors when you shell out real cash for them. If he could just start stealing a few more bases it would really add to his value.
** (New) Steve Mathis (SP)
- $46 Mill through 2066.
- $11.5 Mill team option in 2067 with a $4.5 Mill buyout.
- Movement is a strange ability because it’s purely about a statistic that you avoid (HRs) as opposed to a statistic you accumulate (K’s). But with only 12 homers over 30 games started in 2063, Mathis has shown that keeping the ball in the park can have real WAR value. I like the frontloading of the contract too.
Colorado Rockies
**** (+2 stars) Gilberto Vasquez (SP)
- $24.13 Mill through 2064.
- Player opt out after 2064.
- $72.39 Mill through 2067.
- Ever trade for a guy who immediately becomes wrecked and loses his ability to pitch full games? The tricky thing is that all his other skills remain intact. Should I hope that opts out so that I can dodge his contract? Or just keep him as an expensive opener/closer? Not a lot of good answers here.
*** (New) Lucas Winters (SP)
- $44 Mill through 2065.
- I was unsure about why Arizona had him set as a closer for Spring Training when he looks like starter material to me. I took the experiment to mean they might be interested in trading him, and now he’s pitching for the Rockies. Maybe I’ll understand why he was in Arizona’s pen immediately after I trade for the guy?
*** (New) Mike Kelly (SP)
- $123.2 Mill through 2067.
- Promised role: Starting Pitcher.
- There are two issues in this contract. First: Is this the market cost of a top tier pitcher? I’d argue that once he hits free agency, this is the best price you can hope for. Second: Is it smart for MY team to pay that price? This is a sticky point. This might not be the right time for the Rockies to be paying retail for a starting pitcher.
*** (New) Tommy Groves (SP)
- $51.8 Mill through 2066.
- Promised role: Starting Pitcher.
- NO TRADE CLAUSE.
- When you trade for a guy based on his durable injury history and he goes down with a 10 month UCL injury after 4 innings pitched… Maybe you were just doomed? Anyway. The good news is that he’ll be back in a few months and he should still be able to produce. I think?
Detroit Tigers
** (New) Luis Martinez (1B)
- $125.8 Mill through 2069.
- $21 Mill player option in 2070.
- $21.2 Mill team option in 2071 with a $7 Mill buyout.
- Promised role: Starting lineup.
- Can walk a little, but he’s essentially a pure power bat. Normally I’m a little hesitant about long, pricey contracts for players with only one skill. However, you can’t help but note that he has led the league in homeruns the last two years in a row. The power is unlikely to deteriorate any time soon.
* (No change) Dave Baker (RF)
- $42.08 Mill through 2065.
- $22.04 Mill team option in 2066 with a $7 Mill buyout.
- 2063 was a slight off-year statistically for Baker but I’m not to concerned. This is a very well-designed contract that locks in a consistent power bat at a relatively reasonable price until his mid-30s. He’d be more valuable as a DH at this point, but the Tigers have an embarrassment of batting riches so I can’t fault their choice to keep him in the corner outfield.
* (New) Pete Powell (3B)
- $55 Mill through 2066.
- At most any other position I would shrug laconically while looking at Powell’s profile. In fact, for a 3rd overall draft pick he's had pretty disappointing skill development. However, at 3rd base he’s a star and deserves whatever cash keeps him in the Motor City.
Houston Astros
** (+1 star) Manny Rivera (2B)
- $134 Mill through 2068.
- $24 Mill player option in 2069.
- Promised role: Starting lineup.
- Sometimes the game doesn’t simulate player decisions about their contracts very well. However, in this case Rivera’s opt out and choice to test free agency was a masterful choice by the computer. He’s worth this massive extension as long as he can play second base. That being said, I have doubts about how long he can last at that position
* (-1 star) Berhanu Pnyango (SP)
- $23 Mill through 2064.
- $22 Mill player option in 2065.
- I was always iffy about Pnyango because I was worried about the homeruns he’d give up. I completely missed the mark. His strikeout rate and WHIP are so dominating that he can stand to have one ability that isn’t maxed out.
* (New) Jin Daiwaka (1B)
- $74.38 Mill through 2068.
- $24.8 Mill player option in 2069.
- Promised role: Starting lineup.
- He’s one of those guys who is fantastic at sacrifice bunts. But he’s such a skilled batter that if he ever decided to sac bunt instead of swing away, you’d be enraged.
* (No change) Paul Burke (SP)
- $40 Mill through 2065.
- $20 Mill player option in 2066.
- NO TRADE CLAUSE
- In 2062 he led the league in starter ERA with 2.80. IN 2063 he led the league in K’s with 234. Bear in mind that these things are happening in this early/mid thirties. He’s only broken the 6 WAR threshold twice in his career, but his consistency is second to none.
Kansas City Royals
** (New) Angel Chavez (CL)
- $58.8 Mill through 2067.
- Promised role: Closer.
- If you’re going to fight to sign a star closer in free agency, this is the way to do it: Frontload the deal at a starting price that might seem unreasonable, and let it get cheaper as the you go along. With his stamina I’d want Chavez pitching both the 8th and the 9th when he closes.
Los Angeles Angels
** (No change) Kenzaburo Sato (CF)
- $42.65 Mill through 2064.
- Player opt out after 2064.
- $85.3 Mill through 2066.
- $42.65 Mill player option in 2067.
- You can expect him to bat .270, hit 25+ doubles, steal 30+ bases and pick up a 15+ zone rating at centerfielder. He’s a fascinating 4-tool guy with every skill except for power. Is it worth the enormous yearly price tag? Well, if he isn’t, he’s the closest any guy with his profile will ever come to being a 40 million dollar man.
Minnesota Twins
*** (No change) Ramon Crus (1B/2B/SS/3B)
- $53 Mill through 2066.
- $16 Mill team option in 2067 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- $16 Mill team option in 2068 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- He’s slowly aging out of being a shortstop. Moving from that spot decreases his value but he’s effectively become a super utility guy for the Twins. The ability to fit anywhere in the infield is a pretty helpful talent.
New York Yankees
***** (New) Fernando Cruz (SP)
- $170 Mill through 2067.
- $42.5 Mill team option in 2068 with a $11 Mill buyout.
- $42.5 Mill team option in 2068 with a $11 Mill buyout.
- $1 Mill bonus after 180 IP.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- In the first three years of his contract his FIP has always been above 4. This is the nightmare scenario for signing an international free agent with no measurable background. What if you offer a a super-duper-star contract to a guy who is actually an innings eater?
*** (New) Roy Pike (SP)
- $80 Mill through 2067.
- Sheesh, Roy! What happened last year? All of a sudden he just couldn’t miss a bat to save his life. His BABIP jumped 50 points and his ERA leaped by nearly 3. It’s even stranger when you consider how he put up a 4.4 WAR the previous year. I wouldn’t have though a nosedive like that was possible without a long-term injury.
Oakland Athletics
*** (+2 stars) Jaime Lopez (CF)
- $28 Mill through 2064.
- Player opt out after 2064.
- $56 Mill through 2066.
- He’s had some skill decrease against righties and a few nagging injuries. With that in mind, he’s still a valuable centerfielder if he gets on a lucky streak. At $20 million a year I kind of like this contract, but it gets unwieldy as it nears $30 mill.
** (+1 star) Pablo Diaz (1B)
- $105 Mill through 2067.
- His bat has been oddly subdued since he moved to the bay area. He’s had a better tenure in Oakland if you only look at his at bats vs righties. But it’s always annoying to spend a roster spot to platoon a first baseman making a star’s salary.
** (New) Zg Odhiambo (LF)
- $81 Mill through 2067.
- $21 Mill team option in 2068 with a $5.5 Mill buyout.
- $22 Mill team option in 2069 with a $5.5 Mill buyout.
- He’s had a really odd power outage the past two seasons. His homer production has dropped to half of its traditional peaks. I can’t really see a reason why this trend should continue, so I wouldn’t be super surprised if he didn’t hit 30+ longballs this year.
* (New) Andres Ortiz (SS)
- $75.8 Mill through 2067.
- $20 Mill team option in 2068 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- $20 Mill team option in 2069 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- I can’t fault anything about this extension. He’s the kind of player you want to keep on your team.
* (New) Guillermo Hernandez (SP)
- $131.125 Mill through 2070.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- NO TRADE CLAUSE.
- His career is just getting started. A great player to extend as early as possible.
Seattle Mariners
** (New) Hidetsugu Fujii (1B)
- $191.55 Mill through 2067.
- Player opt out after 2067.
- $97.8 Mill through 2069.
- There is a lot to say about the sheer size of the Fujii contract but I’m going to ignore all that in order to focus on the most important issue: Somehow this man was granted the nickname “The Mad Hungarian.” Did he get this nickname while growing up in Japan? While in the Mets system? Is he a lover of goulash? Or just a big Al Hrabosky fan? The world may never know.
Tampa Bay Rays
*** (+1 stars) Fernando Gutierrez (SP)
- $60.93 Mill through 2066.
- I absolutely HATE when tremendous starting pitchers get wrecked. It immediately tanks their value, regardless of what their arms are capable of. I really hate to see it.
** (+1 star) Yusuke Tanaka (RF)
- $165.82 Mill through 207.
- Promised role: Starting lineup.
- $1 MVP Award bonus.
- It’s a hefty extension but I think he’s worth it. He should probably shift to DH in the next few years but there hasn’t been any sign of his bat being on the downswing.
Texas Rangers
*** (New) Claudio Valenzuela (SS)
- $115 Mill through 2068.
- $25 Mill team option in 2069 with a $8 Mill buyout.
- $30 Mill team option in 2070 with a $10 Mill buyout.
- $3 Mill MVP award bonus.
- $1 Mill All-Star bonus.
- NO TRADE CLAUSE.
- He’s a hard player for me to judge because his entire value is based on being an average player with decent speed who defends the shortstop position well. It’s one thing if you’re a player like Kenzaburo Sato who is a defensive anomaly that clearly stands above all other players. But Valenzuela is just… Kind of good at several things? I have no idea where his over-sized WAR comes from.
* (+1 star) Makalani Korra (CF)
- $86 Mill through 2068.
- Is there anything more dispiriting than a great player’s first crappy season? It’s like catching that first gray hair. In fact, I would like to singularly blame Makalani Korra's 2063 for causing me to acknowledge my own mortality. How dare you, sir.
Toronto Blue Jays
*** (New) Brian McSimon (1B/3B)
- $68.5 Mill through 2068.
- $14.6 Mill player option in 2069.
- $14.6 Mill player option in 2070.
- Promised role: Starting lineup.
- He’s locked into the starting roster for quite some time but the Jays should be able to move him to a team needing a third baseman quite easily given his current yearly cost. I like his value as a 1st baseman a little less.