Marlins state of the state
Mar 21, 2020 14:41:51 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 5 more like this
Post by Commish_Ron on Mar 21, 2020 14:41:51 GMT -5
Marlins are coming off their first winning season since GM Harrison took the drivers seat in 2047. A season where 92 wins got them a seat in the post season. Their appetite for winning has been whetted. The organization took a bit of a turn towards win now moves last season bringing in veterans 2B Lee Peterson, 1B Bruce Hooper and C Jorge Ramirez. This season they have doubled down and worked to improve their roster with additional moves made with the present in mind, perhaps at the detriment of the future.
Time will tell if Miami is jumping the gun and reading too much into a single season's success. They still have a long way to go before they can legitimately go toe to toe with the top teams in the NL. Still, budget's have been slashed. Contracts have been signed. The next few years have been mortgaged and there is a risk of some financial difficulties if the revenue does not grow as hoped.
So. Why are the Marlin's going to be better? Glad you asked. Two Reasons.
1. The rotation. Starting pitching in Miami was not the worst in the NL. But it was the worst part of the team. Steve Mathis had a career year at the top of the rotation. He was a desperation waiver wire pick up sporting a 6.49 ERA in AAA just one year prior. But Marlins needed bodies to fill out the active roster and he contributed a horrendous 8.49 ERA in his 35 IP for the Marlins. Ugh. Somehow he followed that up with a 36 start, 3.32 ERA, 13-13 season. 26 year old Jose Gonzales filled out his potential and stepped up with 200+ innings of 3.53 ERA and contributed 3.7 WAR. Minoru was good until another season ending injury. But the rest of the rotation was pretty bad.
This season Tetsuhiko Minoru is going to be asked to be the staff ace again despite suffering season ending injuries in August in each of the past two seasons.
Marlins paid a second round pick and 3 prospects to Milwaukee for the rights to Juan Garcia. Garcia is coming off his third consecutive 3+ WAR season. The organization is so invested in Garcia they have already agreed to a 6 year, $17M per contract extension before he throws his first pitch in a Miami uniform. We'll be counting on him to provide stability to the top of the rotation. Marlins also give up their first round pick to Cleveland for former #1 overall pick Claudio Silva. Additionally Mike Larson was obtained in a trade with Texas. The three starters obtained via trade will get thrown in the mix with previously mentioned Minoru, Gonzales and Mathis. Finally Cory Hayes and John Hill will probably be hanging out in AAA as insurance.
No one on the roster has much chance of competing for a Cy Young. But there should be enough depth of really good arms to manage injuries and shuffle in the hot hand. That really should result in a significant upgrade to the rotation from last season.
2. Marlins have a couple young bats that made some good contributions last season and appear to still have room to grow.
Center fielder Jorge Fuentes is entering his sophomore season. He was treated with a little bit of caution as a rookie, working out of platoon situations and off the bench most of the year. He contributed 1.8 war and 18 HR in 288 at bats. The reigns are off this year and the 24 year old is penciled in as the every day option in Center.
23 year old Pablo Diaz destroyed AAA with a gawdy .370 average in over 200 at bats. He batted well in limited time in the bigs. His power ratings have jumped and he still has potential to grow there. He'll be in the lineup at either DH or 1B, at least against lefties. If his bat develops to another level this season, as his progression indicates, look out.
But not so fast. What could go wrong?
2B Lee Peterson. Oh man we love this guy. Peterson was obtained in a trade with the White Sox before last season. Miami extended him for 6 years and he responded in his new home with a boom. All he did was post 26 HR, 105 RBI and whopping .878 OPS and 5.6 WAR. He was arguably the single largest part of the team's success last season. Can he continue to put up those kind of numbers? It is fun to dream. Is that actually sustainable? Time will tell.
LF Rob Kerklaan had a great season. Solid defense, 30 doubles and some stolen bases helped him to compile .824 OPS and 3.8 WAR. So, this was all great. But the stats are kind of an outlier in his history. He's 25 years old with a kind of crappy attitude. Historically he only has one other good season under his belt (2050 in AAA). Will he be able to repeat?
1B Bruce Hooper. Marlins were happy to commit to 3 more seasons of $11M salary based on his performance. But he really let us down after he arrived from a trade with Cleveland. We were hoping for more than a .221 batting average and 119 strike outs in 400 at bats. He will be given every chance to rediscover the magic but we need more from him.
C Jorge Ramirez also needs to step up and contribute what he is getting paid $10 million. for.
That is in essence the heart of the Marlin offense that was at the center of the Marlins success last season with question marks.
Conclusion:
It is fun to be back in the mix. But we have to remember it came down to the final two sims to decide a three way race for the final playoff spot to get in. Marlins are definitely on the bubble. Confidence (and likely impatience) compelled Marlins management to push for success now and bank on expanding revenues over the next few seasons. Did they read the lay of the land right? Did they extend the right players? Let's play some ball and find out!
Time will tell if Miami is jumping the gun and reading too much into a single season's success. They still have a long way to go before they can legitimately go toe to toe with the top teams in the NL. Still, budget's have been slashed. Contracts have been signed. The next few years have been mortgaged and there is a risk of some financial difficulties if the revenue does not grow as hoped.
So. Why are the Marlin's going to be better? Glad you asked. Two Reasons.
1. The rotation. Starting pitching in Miami was not the worst in the NL. But it was the worst part of the team. Steve Mathis had a career year at the top of the rotation. He was a desperation waiver wire pick up sporting a 6.49 ERA in AAA just one year prior. But Marlins needed bodies to fill out the active roster and he contributed a horrendous 8.49 ERA in his 35 IP for the Marlins. Ugh. Somehow he followed that up with a 36 start, 3.32 ERA, 13-13 season. 26 year old Jose Gonzales filled out his potential and stepped up with 200+ innings of 3.53 ERA and contributed 3.7 WAR. Minoru was good until another season ending injury. But the rest of the rotation was pretty bad.
This season Tetsuhiko Minoru is going to be asked to be the staff ace again despite suffering season ending injuries in August in each of the past two seasons.
Marlins paid a second round pick and 3 prospects to Milwaukee for the rights to Juan Garcia. Garcia is coming off his third consecutive 3+ WAR season. The organization is so invested in Garcia they have already agreed to a 6 year, $17M per contract extension before he throws his first pitch in a Miami uniform. We'll be counting on him to provide stability to the top of the rotation. Marlins also give up their first round pick to Cleveland for former #1 overall pick Claudio Silva. Additionally Mike Larson was obtained in a trade with Texas. The three starters obtained via trade will get thrown in the mix with previously mentioned Minoru, Gonzales and Mathis. Finally Cory Hayes and John Hill will probably be hanging out in AAA as insurance.
No one on the roster has much chance of competing for a Cy Young. But there should be enough depth of really good arms to manage injuries and shuffle in the hot hand. That really should result in a significant upgrade to the rotation from last season.
2. Marlins have a couple young bats that made some good contributions last season and appear to still have room to grow.
Center fielder Jorge Fuentes is entering his sophomore season. He was treated with a little bit of caution as a rookie, working out of platoon situations and off the bench most of the year. He contributed 1.8 war and 18 HR in 288 at bats. The reigns are off this year and the 24 year old is penciled in as the every day option in Center.
23 year old Pablo Diaz destroyed AAA with a gawdy .370 average in over 200 at bats. He batted well in limited time in the bigs. His power ratings have jumped and he still has potential to grow there. He'll be in the lineup at either DH or 1B, at least against lefties. If his bat develops to another level this season, as his progression indicates, look out.
But not so fast. What could go wrong?
2B Lee Peterson. Oh man we love this guy. Peterson was obtained in a trade with the White Sox before last season. Miami extended him for 6 years and he responded in his new home with a boom. All he did was post 26 HR, 105 RBI and whopping .878 OPS and 5.6 WAR. He was arguably the single largest part of the team's success last season. Can he continue to put up those kind of numbers? It is fun to dream. Is that actually sustainable? Time will tell.
LF Rob Kerklaan had a great season. Solid defense, 30 doubles and some stolen bases helped him to compile .824 OPS and 3.8 WAR. So, this was all great. But the stats are kind of an outlier in his history. He's 25 years old with a kind of crappy attitude. Historically he only has one other good season under his belt (2050 in AAA). Will he be able to repeat?
1B Bruce Hooper. Marlins were happy to commit to 3 more seasons of $11M salary based on his performance. But he really let us down after he arrived from a trade with Cleveland. We were hoping for more than a .221 batting average and 119 strike outs in 400 at bats. He will be given every chance to rediscover the magic but we need more from him.
C Jorge Ramirez also needs to step up and contribute what he is getting paid $10 million. for.
That is in essence the heart of the Marlin offense that was at the center of the Marlins success last season with question marks.
Conclusion:
It is fun to be back in the mix. But we have to remember it came down to the final two sims to decide a three way race for the final playoff spot to get in. Marlins are definitely on the bubble. Confidence (and likely impatience) compelled Marlins management to push for success now and bank on expanding revenues over the next few seasons. Did they read the lay of the land right? Did they extend the right players? Let's play some ball and find out!