Sansterre's AL Forecast - Too Early Edition
Mar 24, 2019 20:28:21 GMT -5
Tim_KCRoyalsGM, craigWhiteSox, and 5 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 24, 2019 20:28:21 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you. Except for Craig. Especially Craig.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today (start of Spring Training).
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) The real forecast is more extreme. These were all regressed to the mean by 20%.
AL East (-5.1 wins below average):
New York Yankees: 87.7 wins
Toronto Blue Jays: 79.0 wins
Baltimore Orioles: 69.6 wins
Boston Red Sox: 67.4 wins
AL Central (-3.3 wins below average):
Chicago White Sox: 87.9 wins
Cleveland Indians: 86.7 wins
Minnesota Twins: 70.6 wins
Detroit Tigers: 65.4 wins
AL West (+1.7 wins above average):
Oakland Athletics: 97.4 wins
Colorado Rockies: 92.6 wins
Seattle Mariners: 73.3 wins
Los Angeles Angels: 67.8 wins
AL South (+6.7 wins above average):
Texas Rangers: 93.5 wins
Kansas City Royals: 93.0 wins
Houston Astros: 86.2 wins
Tampa Bay Rays: 77.9 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Oakland, Texas
Seeds 3&4: Yankees, White Sox
Wild Cards: Colorado, Kansas City
First Two Out: Cleveland, Houston
Observations:
1) Cleveland and Chicago have exceeded the forecast by 10+ games each of the last two years. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if it happened again. Both teams are run by skilled GMs (a skill the sheet doesn't count). If they exceed it again by 10+ each I'll build in a CraigFactor, to adjust the sheet manually for teams that consistently exceed/disappoint the sheet's expectations.
2) The sheet is completely unimpressed by Oakland's missing the playoffs last year. As far as it's concerned, any team with Norris Barton, Carlos Martinez, Carl Holmes, Pedro Aguilar, Mel Wolfe, Michael Jones, and 400 PA's from Bryant Chaney has no business not being considered the best team in the AL.
3) The sheet loves the AL South even more than last year. The Astros jumped in forecast by five wins and should be considered a legitimate playoff candidate, just as they were last year before fading down the stretch. And the Royals look like one of the top four teams in the AL (the Central's inevitable making my sheet look bad notwithstanding).
4) My sheet seems stuck on thinking that the Blue Jays are just below 80 wins. One of these days it'll happen.
5) The really scary thing is that, mechanically, one of Cleveland, Chicago, Colorado, Texas and Kansas City *must* miss the playoffs. Now sure, one of those five teams is likely to have an off year and resolve things peaceably. But odds are that a very good team is going to miss out. And that's not even counting the chances that Houston has an up year.
6) If you're thinking that Kansas City or Houston are overrated by the sheet, think again. Those are two quality rosters. And Kansas City looks really good. Especially now that Bill "Least Threatening Nickname Ever" Kachmar seems to have hit his peak.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you. Except for Craig. Especially Craig.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today (start of Spring Training).
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) The real forecast is more extreme. These were all regressed to the mean by 20%.
AL East (-5.1 wins below average):
New York Yankees: 87.7 wins
Toronto Blue Jays: 79.0 wins
Baltimore Orioles: 69.6 wins
Boston Red Sox: 67.4 wins
AL Central (-3.3 wins below average):
Chicago White Sox: 87.9 wins
Cleveland Indians: 86.7 wins
Minnesota Twins: 70.6 wins
Detroit Tigers: 65.4 wins
AL West (+1.7 wins above average):
Oakland Athletics: 97.4 wins
Colorado Rockies: 92.6 wins
Seattle Mariners: 73.3 wins
Los Angeles Angels: 67.8 wins
AL South (+6.7 wins above average):
Texas Rangers: 93.5 wins
Kansas City Royals: 93.0 wins
Houston Astros: 86.2 wins
Tampa Bay Rays: 77.9 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Oakland, Texas
Seeds 3&4: Yankees, White Sox
Wild Cards: Colorado, Kansas City
First Two Out: Cleveland, Houston
Observations:
1) Cleveland and Chicago have exceeded the forecast by 10+ games each of the last two years. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if it happened again. Both teams are run by skilled GMs (a skill the sheet doesn't count). If they exceed it again by 10+ each I'll build in a CraigFactor, to adjust the sheet manually for teams that consistently exceed/disappoint the sheet's expectations.
2) The sheet is completely unimpressed by Oakland's missing the playoffs last year. As far as it's concerned, any team with Norris Barton, Carlos Martinez, Carl Holmes, Pedro Aguilar, Mel Wolfe, Michael Jones, and 400 PA's from Bryant Chaney has no business not being considered the best team in the AL.
3) The sheet loves the AL South even more than last year. The Astros jumped in forecast by five wins and should be considered a legitimate playoff candidate, just as they were last year before fading down the stretch. And the Royals look like one of the top four teams in the AL (the Central's inevitable making my sheet look bad notwithstanding).
4) My sheet seems stuck on thinking that the Blue Jays are just below 80 wins. One of these days it'll happen.
5) The really scary thing is that, mechanically, one of Cleveland, Chicago, Colorado, Texas and Kansas City *must* miss the playoffs. Now sure, one of those five teams is likely to have an off year and resolve things peaceably. But odds are that a very good team is going to miss out. And that's not even counting the chances that Houston has an up year.
6) If you're thinking that Kansas City or Houston are overrated by the sheet, think again. Those are two quality rosters. And Kansas City looks really good. Especially now that Bill "Least Threatening Nickname Ever" Kachmar seems to have hit his peak.