Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 21, 2019 14:35:07 GMT -5
First let's go through the lines themselves:
Ultra-Conservative Predictions (90% chance): FOR $9 gets you $10 / AGAINST $1 gets you $10
Yankees have ten game lead or more on the 4th place AL East team | They won by 32 games, so yeah
Yankees make the playoffs | Made it by 20 games, yes
The winner of the AL West will have a 30 game lead on the 4th place AL West team | 37 games, yes
The Padres make the playoffs | Made it by 12 games, yes
The Cubs finish 4th in the NL Central | Only finished one game out of 4th, but yes
The Nationals make the playoffs | Made it by 18 wins, so yes
Verdict: 6/6 (100%) of the Ultra-Conservative came off, and most were never in doubt. The Chicago 4th bet was pretty close, but the two teams finished 8 WAR apart, so it wasn't as close as it appeared.
Conservative Predictions (80% chance): FOR $4 gets you $5 / AGAINST $1 gets you $5
New York Yankees win the AL East | won it by 20 games, yes
One of the AL bye teams will come from the AL West | Colorado missed a bye by 4 games, no
Colorado makes the playoffs | Made it by 4 games, yes
Cleveland makes the playoffs | Made it by 17 games, yes
Cleveland gets 5 wins worse or more (95 wins or less) | Cleveland actually got 4 wins better, no
Tampa Bay gets 5 wins worse or more (91 wins or less) | Tampa gets 14 wins worse, yes
Kansas City gets 10 wins better or more (73 wins or more) | Kansas City gets 28 wins better, yes
Pittsburgh gets 5 wins worse or more (99 wins or more) | Pittsburgh gets 19 wins worse, yes
Texas makes the playoffs | Made it by 7 games, yes
The Expos get 5 wins or more better (69 wins or more) | Montreal got 8 wins better, yes
The NL West is has the best aggregate record in the NL | Yes
The Warhounds get worse by at least 5 wins (71 wins or less) | Carolina got 20 wins worse, yes
At least one of the Pirates and Giants do not make the playoffs | Neither team made it, yes
The Padres win the division by 5 games or more | The Padres didn't even win their division, no
The Reds make the playoffs | Made it by 7 games, yes
Verdict: 12/15 (80%) of the conservative predictions came through, which was the exact line. So I call that a win. Sure I whiffed big on Cleveland but pretty much every other team record prediction was on point.
Cautious Predictions (60% chance): FOR $3 gets you $5 / AGAINST $2 gets you $5
New York Yankees win the AL East by 5 games or more | Won it by 20 games, yes
Baltimore does better than last year (70 wins or better) | Baltimore got 6 games worse, no
Toronto does better than last year (71 wins or better) | Toronto got 2 games better, yes
Oakland wins 100+ games | Oakland finished 13 games short, no
An AL team besides Oakland wins 100+ games | Both Chicago and Cleveland did, yes
The AL West will send two teams to the playoffs | Oakland finished four games out, no
Neither the Mariners nor the Angels break 70 wins | Seattle threatened with 66, yes
The winner of the AL West will have at least a 40 game lead on the 4th place team in the division | 37 games, no
The White Sox fail to make the playoffs | Pretty galactic whiff, no
Neither the Twins nor the Tigers win 80+ games | Minnesota won 81 games, no
Cleveland fails to get a bye | Cleveland had the best record in the league, no
The White Sox get 5 wins worse or more (86 wins or less) | Chicago got 11 wins better, no
The AL South finishes with the best aggregate record in the AL | AL Central had the best record, no
Tampa Bay does not make the playoffs | Finished 9 games short, yes
Texas wins the AL South | It was close, but Texas pulled it out, yes
Kansas City gets 20 games better or more (83 wins or more) | KC got 28 games better, yes
Pittsburgh gets 10 wins worse or more (94 wins or less) | Pittsburgh got 19 wins worse, yes
The Mets win the NL East | by 12 games, yes
The Mets get 5 wins worse or more (90 wins or less) | Mets got 2 wins better, no
The Padres get 5 wins worse or more (101 wins or less) | Padres got 7 wins worse, yes
The Padres get a bye | Missed by 2 games, no
The Reds win 5 or more games than last year (90 wins or more) | Reds won 9 games more than last year, yes
The Reds win the NL Central | By 3 games, yes
The Reds, Cardinals and Brewers combine to improve 20 wins or more (263 wins or more total) | Only 8 win improvement, Brewers' fault, no
The NL Central sends at least one wild card team | By 4 games, yes
The Nationals win the division by at least 5 games | By 18 games, yes
The Phillies finish 4th in the NL East | Tied for last, so I'm not calling this one
The NL East will not have a bye team | Mets pulled this out by 1 game, no
The NL beats the AL in interleague competition | Happened, yes
The NL Central has a bye team | 3 games short, no
The Cardinals make the playoffs | By 4 games, yes
Verdict: 16/30 (53%) of the Cautious predictions came true (compared to 60% predicted); I took a hit on a lot of these bets.
Even Odds (50% chance): FOR $1 gets you $2 / AGAINST $1 gets you $2
Boston gets at least 5 wins worse (74 wins or fewer) | Only got 4 wins worse, no
Oakland has the best record in the AL | 17 games short, no
The Mariners and Angels will improve at least 10 games between them (122 wins or more combined) | Only 8 games improvement, no
Cleveland gets 10 wins worse or more (90 wins or less) | Got 4 wins better, no
Kansas City finishes with a better record than Tampa Bay | By 9 wins, yes
Houston gets 5 wins better or more (78 wins or more) | Got 1 win worse, no
The Expos get 10 wins better or more (74 wins) | Got 8 wins better, no
The Pirates don't break 90 wins | Five short, yes
The NL West has the best aggregate record in the PBL | By 25 wins, yes
The Padres win the NL West by 10 games or more | Didn't win, no
The Brewers win 80 games or more | 66 wins, no
Two of Cincinnati, Arizona, Milwaukee and the Dodgers will make the playoffs | Cincy and Arizona, yes
Two NL teams win 100+ games | A 101 and 99, but no dice, no
Verdict: 3/13 (23%) came true, yet these were considered even bets. Ouch
Semi-Bold Predictions (40% chance): FOR $2 gets you $5 / AGAINST $3 gets you $5
New York Yankees get a bye | Yes
Toronto finishes 2nd in the AL East | 3 games short, no
Boston finishes last in the AL East | 12 games ahead, no
Baltimore finishes last in the AL East | by 9 games, yes
The AL West will have 2 of the top 4 records in the AL, and 2 of the bottom 4 records in the AL | 2 of the top 7, 2 of the bottom 4, no
The two AL Wild Card teams will come from the West and the South | Central and South, no
The AL Central finishes with the best aggregate record in the AL | yes
Tampa Bay gets 10 wins worse or more (86 wins or less) | 14 wins worse, yes
Kansas City makes the playoffs | by 4 games, yes
Houston does not finish last in the AL South | Finished last by 10 games, no
The Expos win 81 games or more | 9 games short, no
The NL West has no teams below 80 wins | San Fran won 78, no
The Giants finish last in the NL West | By 9 wins, yes
The NL West sends no wild card teams | Not even close, no
The Cardinals win 5 or more games than last year (92 wins or more) | 4 games more, no
The Marlins do not finish last in the NL West | By 16 games in fact, yes
The Warhounds get at least 10 wins worse (66 wins or less) | 20 games worse, yes
Verdict: 8/17 (47%) of the Semi-Bold came true, not too bad
Bold Predictions (20% chance): FOR $1 gets you $5 / AGAINST $4 gets you $5
Colorado has one of the top two records in the AL | Tied for 5th, no
The AL West will have 2 of the top 3 records in the AL and 2 of the bottom 3 records in the AL | Not close, no
Either Kansas City or Houston wins the AL South | Came within 3 games, no
Tampa Bay finishes last in the AL South | 3rd by 10 games, no
Pittsburgh does not make the playoffs | yes
The Cardinals finish with one of the top 3 records in the NL, but don't win the division | 6th best record, no
The Cardinals get a bye | Came within 6 games, no
Verdict: 1/7 (14%) of the Bold Predictions came true; about as good as I could hope for.
Complete-Reach Predictions (10% chance): FOR $1 gets you $10 / AGAINST $9 gets you $10
Oakland and Colorado have the top two records in the AL | No
Colorado will have a top 2 record in the AL and still only get a wild card | No
Any of Houston, Minnesota or Detroit makes the playoffs | Both Houston and Minnesota threatened, but ultimately finished 10 out, no
Two of Oakland, Colorado, the Yankees, Cleveland and Texas do not make the playoffs | The team that missed was not the expected one; those four were four of the top 7 so Tampa or Minnesota would have to have done way better. No
The Pirates or the Mets finish in the bottom 2 of the division | No
The Padres win 90 games or less | 99 wins, no
Verdict: 0/6 (0%) of the Complete-Reach Predictions came true. About what I aimed for
It's weird to look back on these and see where the predictions came through and where they went awry. In a little bit, the results of the individual bets!
Ultra-Conservative Predictions (90% chance): FOR $9 gets you $10 / AGAINST $1 gets you $10
Yankees have ten game lead or more on the 4th place AL East team | They won by 32 games, so yeah
Yankees make the playoffs | Made it by 20 games, yes
The winner of the AL West will have a 30 game lead on the 4th place AL West team | 37 games, yes
The Padres make the playoffs | Made it by 12 games, yes
The Cubs finish 4th in the NL Central | Only finished one game out of 4th, but yes
The Nationals make the playoffs | Made it by 18 wins, so yes
Verdict: 6/6 (100%) of the Ultra-Conservative came off, and most were never in doubt. The Chicago 4th bet was pretty close, but the two teams finished 8 WAR apart, so it wasn't as close as it appeared.
Conservative Predictions (80% chance): FOR $4 gets you $5 / AGAINST $1 gets you $5
New York Yankees win the AL East | won it by 20 games, yes
One of the AL bye teams will come from the AL West | Colorado missed a bye by 4 games, no
Colorado makes the playoffs | Made it by 4 games, yes
Cleveland makes the playoffs | Made it by 17 games, yes
Cleveland gets 5 wins worse or more (95 wins or less) | Cleveland actually got 4 wins better, no
Tampa Bay gets 5 wins worse or more (91 wins or less) | Tampa gets 14 wins worse, yes
Kansas City gets 10 wins better or more (73 wins or more) | Kansas City gets 28 wins better, yes
Pittsburgh gets 5 wins worse or more (99 wins or more) | Pittsburgh gets 19 wins worse, yes
Texas makes the playoffs | Made it by 7 games, yes
The Expos get 5 wins or more better (69 wins or more) | Montreal got 8 wins better, yes
The NL West is has the best aggregate record in the NL | Yes
The Warhounds get worse by at least 5 wins (71 wins or less) | Carolina got 20 wins worse, yes
At least one of the Pirates and Giants do not make the playoffs | Neither team made it, yes
The Padres win the division by 5 games or more | The Padres didn't even win their division, no
The Reds make the playoffs | Made it by 7 games, yes
Verdict: 12/15 (80%) of the conservative predictions came through, which was the exact line. So I call that a win. Sure I whiffed big on Cleveland but pretty much every other team record prediction was on point.
Cautious Predictions (60% chance): FOR $3 gets you $5 / AGAINST $2 gets you $5
New York Yankees win the AL East by 5 games or more | Won it by 20 games, yes
Baltimore does better than last year (70 wins or better) | Baltimore got 6 games worse, no
Toronto does better than last year (71 wins or better) | Toronto got 2 games better, yes
Oakland wins 100+ games | Oakland finished 13 games short, no
An AL team besides Oakland wins 100+ games | Both Chicago and Cleveland did, yes
The AL West will send two teams to the playoffs | Oakland finished four games out, no
Neither the Mariners nor the Angels break 70 wins | Seattle threatened with 66, yes
The winner of the AL West will have at least a 40 game lead on the 4th place team in the division | 37 games, no
The White Sox fail to make the playoffs | Pretty galactic whiff, no
Neither the Twins nor the Tigers win 80+ games | Minnesota won 81 games, no
Cleveland fails to get a bye | Cleveland had the best record in the league, no
The White Sox get 5 wins worse or more (86 wins or less) | Chicago got 11 wins better, no
The AL South finishes with the best aggregate record in the AL | AL Central had the best record, no
Tampa Bay does not make the playoffs | Finished 9 games short, yes
Texas wins the AL South | It was close, but Texas pulled it out, yes
Kansas City gets 20 games better or more (83 wins or more) | KC got 28 games better, yes
Pittsburgh gets 10 wins worse or more (94 wins or less) | Pittsburgh got 19 wins worse, yes
The Mets win the NL East | by 12 games, yes
The Mets get 5 wins worse or more (90 wins or less) | Mets got 2 wins better, no
The Padres get 5 wins worse or more (101 wins or less) | Padres got 7 wins worse, yes
The Padres get a bye | Missed by 2 games, no
The Reds win 5 or more games than last year (90 wins or more) | Reds won 9 games more than last year, yes
The Reds win the NL Central | By 3 games, yes
The Reds, Cardinals and Brewers combine to improve 20 wins or more (263 wins or more total) | Only 8 win improvement, Brewers' fault, no
The NL Central sends at least one wild card team | By 4 games, yes
The Nationals win the division by at least 5 games | By 18 games, yes
The Phillies finish 4th in the NL East | Tied for last, so I'm not calling this one
The NL East will not have a bye team | Mets pulled this out by 1 game, no
The NL beats the AL in interleague competition | Happened, yes
The NL Central has a bye team | 3 games short, no
The Cardinals make the playoffs | By 4 games, yes
Verdict: 16/30 (53%) of the Cautious predictions came true (compared to 60% predicted); I took a hit on a lot of these bets.
Even Odds (50% chance): FOR $1 gets you $2 / AGAINST $1 gets you $2
Boston gets at least 5 wins worse (74 wins or fewer) | Only got 4 wins worse, no
Oakland has the best record in the AL | 17 games short, no
The Mariners and Angels will improve at least 10 games between them (122 wins or more combined) | Only 8 games improvement, no
Cleveland gets 10 wins worse or more (90 wins or less) | Got 4 wins better, no
Kansas City finishes with a better record than Tampa Bay | By 9 wins, yes
Houston gets 5 wins better or more (78 wins or more) | Got 1 win worse, no
The Expos get 10 wins better or more (74 wins) | Got 8 wins better, no
The Pirates don't break 90 wins | Five short, yes
The NL West has the best aggregate record in the PBL | By 25 wins, yes
The Padres win the NL West by 10 games or more | Didn't win, no
The Brewers win 80 games or more | 66 wins, no
Two of Cincinnati, Arizona, Milwaukee and the Dodgers will make the playoffs | Cincy and Arizona, yes
Two NL teams win 100+ games | A 101 and 99, but no dice, no
Verdict: 3/13 (23%) came true, yet these were considered even bets. Ouch
Semi-Bold Predictions (40% chance): FOR $2 gets you $5 / AGAINST $3 gets you $5
New York Yankees get a bye | Yes
Toronto finishes 2nd in the AL East | 3 games short, no
Boston finishes last in the AL East | 12 games ahead, no
Baltimore finishes last in the AL East | by 9 games, yes
The AL West will have 2 of the top 4 records in the AL, and 2 of the bottom 4 records in the AL | 2 of the top 7, 2 of the bottom 4, no
The two AL Wild Card teams will come from the West and the South | Central and South, no
The AL Central finishes with the best aggregate record in the AL | yes
Tampa Bay gets 10 wins worse or more (86 wins or less) | 14 wins worse, yes
Kansas City makes the playoffs | by 4 games, yes
Houston does not finish last in the AL South | Finished last by 10 games, no
The Expos win 81 games or more | 9 games short, no
The NL West has no teams below 80 wins | San Fran won 78, no
The Giants finish last in the NL West | By 9 wins, yes
The NL West sends no wild card teams | Not even close, no
The Cardinals win 5 or more games than last year (92 wins or more) | 4 games more, no
The Marlins do not finish last in the NL West | By 16 games in fact, yes
The Warhounds get at least 10 wins worse (66 wins or less) | 20 games worse, yes
Verdict: 8/17 (47%) of the Semi-Bold came true, not too bad
Bold Predictions (20% chance): FOR $1 gets you $5 / AGAINST $4 gets you $5
Colorado has one of the top two records in the AL | Tied for 5th, no
The AL West will have 2 of the top 3 records in the AL and 2 of the bottom 3 records in the AL | Not close, no
Either Kansas City or Houston wins the AL South | Came within 3 games, no
Tampa Bay finishes last in the AL South | 3rd by 10 games, no
Pittsburgh does not make the playoffs | yes
The Cardinals finish with one of the top 3 records in the NL, but don't win the division | 6th best record, no
The Cardinals get a bye | Came within 6 games, no
Verdict: 1/7 (14%) of the Bold Predictions came true; about as good as I could hope for.
Complete-Reach Predictions (10% chance): FOR $1 gets you $10 / AGAINST $9 gets you $10
Oakland and Colorado have the top two records in the AL | No
Colorado will have a top 2 record in the AL and still only get a wild card | No
Any of Houston, Minnesota or Detroit makes the playoffs | Both Houston and Minnesota threatened, but ultimately finished 10 out, no
Two of Oakland, Colorado, the Yankees, Cleveland and Texas do not make the playoffs | The team that missed was not the expected one; those four were four of the top 7 so Tampa or Minnesota would have to have done way better. No
The Pirates or the Mets finish in the bottom 2 of the division | No
The Padres win 90 games or less | 99 wins, no
Verdict: 0/6 (0%) of the Complete-Reach Predictions came true. About what I aimed for
It's weird to look back on these and see where the predictions came through and where they went awry. In a little bit, the results of the individual bets!