NL Playoff Odds - 08/09/49
Feb 6, 2019 8:37:46 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, craigWhiteSox, and 5 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 6, 2019 8:37:46 GMT -5
NL East | Record | WAR Rating | Est. Wins | Playoff% | Bye% | Record Delta | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYN | 62-49 | +0.26 | 88.4 | 81.6% | 4.5% | 15-14 | -6.6% | -1.5 |
PIT | 58-52 | +0.08 | 84.0 | 24.0% | 0.6% | 16-12 | -9.0% | +1.2 |
MON | 51-59 | -0.34 | 75.2 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 14-14 | -0.5% | +1.3 |
PHI | 51-59 | -0.30 | 74.9 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 10-18 | -3.7% | -3.0 |
NL Central | ||||||||
STL | 61-49 | +0.48 | 89.4 | 75.2% | 4.4% | 17-11 | -1.5% | +2.2 |
CIN | 58-52 | +0.60 | 86.7 | 43.2% | 1.2% | 16-13 | -12.0% | +1.1 |
MIL | 48-63 | -0.41 | 72.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12-17 | -1.9% | -3.0 |
CHN | 45-66 | -1.02 | 65.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13-16 | +1.5 | |
NL West | ||||||||
SDN | 67-43 | +1.66 | 98.4 | 99.9% | 57.7% | 14-14 | -0.1% | -3.9 |
ARI | 69-42 | +0.86 | 97.0 | 99.8% | 34.1% | 19-10 | +1.3% | +2.5 |
LAN | 61-50 | +1.18 | 89.4 | 75.4% | 0.2% | 21-8 | +41.2% | +6.8 |
SFN | 49-62 | -0.57 | 72.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12-17 | -2.1 | |
NL South | ||||||||
WAS | 69-42 | +1.16 | 98.5 | 100.0% | 94.5% | 17-12 | +0.4 | |
ATL | 52-60 | -0.10 | 76.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12-17 | -6.7% | -2.0 |
MIA | 52-59 | -0.73 | 73.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17-12 | -0.1% | +4.4 |
CAR | 39-73 | -1.89 | 57.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7-21 | -4.5 |
Swings:
Los Angeles Dodgers (+41.2% / +6.8): Holy mackerel! A 21-8 month catapults the Dodgers into the probable 6th playoff spot for the NL. In one month their WAR rating jumped by +0.44, which is insane. This team is on fire!!!
Miami Marlins (-0.1% / +4.4): The Marlins had a great month, going 17-12, even if their WAR rating didn't budge (suggesting their wins were slightly fluky). Their great month sadly didn't save their playoff hopes, because going 17-12 doesn't help if your competition goes 21-8. Still, they're on pace for a 73.7 win season, which is fantastic!
San Diego Padres (-0.1% / -3.9): It's weird when a 14-14 month pulls your numbers down this hard, but that's a tribute to how well San Diego was playing before. Their WAR rating cratered by -0.35 which suggests that they didn't play particularly well in that stretch. Despite being 1.5 games behind Arizona the Padres are still expected to win the division. The sheet still thinks they're the definitively better team, enough so to give them a slight edge in the division.
Philadelphia Phillies (-3.7% / -3.0): The Phillies' midseason run comes up short, with a 10-18 month pretty much ending their postseason hopes.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+1.3% / +2.5): The Arizona train just keeps on rolling with a 19-10 week. Their WAR rating has fallen by -0.40 which suggests that their performance has dropped considerably over this stretch, which isn't great. Nevertheless, Arizona is ideally positioned for the postseason. Fun fact, their record in May, June and July is a combined 55-26!
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5% / +2.2): Wait, what the heck? The Cards go 17-11, up their expected wins by 2.2, extend their lead over the Reds from 1.5 games to 3 games, but have their playoff odds drop. The fault (a theme you'll keep hearing) lies with the freaking NL West. When the Dodgers went 21-8 they pretty much made it so that the odds that a non-NL West team makes the Wild Card is only maybe 25%. So while the Cardinals are more likely to win their division than before, they're less likely to make the playoffs if they don't win their division.
Atlanta Braves (-6.7% / -2.0): Atlanta has a bad month, but frankly, even a good month wouldn't have helped much with how the Dodgers have been playing.
Cincinnati Reds (-12.0% / +1.1): Cincinnati goes 16-13 but takes a big hit to their playoff chances. St. Louis had a better month and the Reds are farther behind. WAR rating thinks that the Reds are the better team, but not 3 games better. And of course, the NL West has made it so that if the Reds make the playoffs, it will probably be by winning their division.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-9.0% / +1.2): The Pirates have a nice 16-12 month and gain 1.5 games on the Mets. So why did the Pirates' odds go down? The NL West!
New York Mets (-6.6% / -1.5): The Mets had a decent 15-14 month, but lose ground to the Pirates and see their WAR rating drop from 0.57 to 0.26. Nevertheless, they have a 3.5 game lead on their division with only 50 games to go; why did their odds drop? As Ewan MacGregor famously sang in Moulin Rouge, "The greatest thing / you'll ever learn / is just to love / and be loved in return / unless you're near the NL West / they'll put your playoff hopes to rest." I think that's how it goes.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Washington (100.0% playoffs), San Diego (99.9%)
Division Winners: New York (81.6%), St. Louis (75.2%)
Wild Cards: Arizona (99.8%), Los Angeles (75.4%)
Next Out: Cincinnati (43.2%), Pittsburgh (24.0%), Montreal (0.2%), Philadelphia (0.1%)
Chance that the forecast six make the playoffs: 46.1% (up 10%)