AL Playoff Odds - 08/09/2049
Feb 5, 2019 12:03:11 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, craigWhiteSox, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 5, 2019 12:03:11 GMT -5
AL East | Record | WAR Rating | Exp. Wins | Playoff% | Bye% | RecordDelta | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYA | 62-48 | +0.83 | 91.3 | 97.0% | 43.5% | 17-11 | +6.2% | +1.9 |
BOS | 58-52 | -0.20 | 82.5 | 14.2% | 0.4% | 15-13 | +0.8% | +1.7 |
TOR | 46-65 | -0.31 | 70.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11-18 | -0.6% | -4.3 |
BAL | 44-66 | -0.96 | 66.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11-17 | -1.7 | |
AL Central | ||||||||
CLE | 72-39 | +1.36 | 101.9 | 100.0% | 85.5% | 18-11 | +1.1 | |
CHA | 67-43 | +1.38 | 96.2 | 99.7% | 10.3% | 19-9 | +14.8% | +4.4 |
MIN | 59-52 | -0.04 | 83.6 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 14-15 | -3.6% | -0.6 |
DET | 34-76 | -2.12 | 53.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6-13 | -7.6 | |
AL West | ||||||||
COL | 61-50 | +1.35 | 91.1 | 95.0% | 37.1% | 15-14 | +1.2% | -1.8 |
OAK | 57-54 | +0.44 | 85.7 | 39.7% | 2.3% | 13-16 | -36.9% | -4.0 |
SEA | 49-61 | -1.14 | 70.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15-13 | +4.4 | |
LAA | 39-72 | -1.93 | 57.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7-22 | -5.2 | |
AL South | ||||||||
TEX | 58-53 | +0.76 | 85.8 | 49.5% | 3.2% | 18-11 | +19.4% | +2.5 |
KCA | 60-52 | +0.06 | 85.4 | 44.2% | 2.6% | 14-14 | -12.9% | -0.5 |
HOU | 59-53 | +0.33 | 84.6 | 36.7% | 1.1% | 16-13 | +10.0% | +2.2 |
TBA | 55-56 | -0.74 | 78.2 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 17-12 | +1.3% | +3.6 |
Swings:
Chicago White Sox (+14.8% / +4.4): The White Sox are on a tear, going 19-9 and raising their WAR to the highest in the AL. Not only do they have the highest WAR in the AL, but also the second highest expected wins (by a large margin). They're pretty much in Colorado's situation last year; an awesome team trapped behind the top record in the league. The question at this point isn't whether or not Chicago will make the playoffs, but whether or they can catch Cleveland. The odds are against them, but betting against the White Sox hasn't historically gone well for me . . .
Seattle Mariners (+4.4): Seattle goes on a nice little 15-13 run, bringing their expected wins above 70!
Oakland Athletics (-36.9% / -4.0): Yowch! Oakland underperforms by going 13-16, even while raising their WAR rating. They're up against the monstrous 3-way clusterduck in the AL South. Two teams of Oakland, Texas, Kansas City and Houston are making the playoffs, and of the four Oakland has the worst record (though not by much). We are looking at a greater than 50% chance that Oakland does not make the playoffs this year.
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.3% / +3.6): Just when you thought the playoff race in the AL South couldn't get any more crowded Tampa puts up a 17-12 month. They're only 4.5 games out of first; in theory this is doable. In practice there are three teams ahead of them, all of which are much better (according to WAR Rating). But even having a shot is pretty impressive at this point.
Texas Rangers (+19.4% / +2.5): Texas saved their run for the right time, going 18-11. They're still 1.5 games behind the Royals and 0.5 games behind Houston, but Texas is the best team of the bunch, and so gets the tiniest of advantages in the odds. The gap between the #1 and #3 team in this division at the end of the season is estimated at 1.2 games, so this is going to be tight.
Houston Astros (+10.0% / +2.2): Houston went 16-13 and raised their WAR rating. Don't be surprised if Houston sneaks into the playoffs this year; they've quietly put together a very solid year.
Kansas City Royals (-12.9% / -0.5): The Royals went 14-14, which isn't terrible, but every other team in the division stepped it up. The Royals have a tenuous lead, but by WAR are only an average team. They still have a solid shot but they better bring it to stay ahead of everyone else.
AL Playoff Picture:
Byes: Cleveland (100% playoff), New York (97.0% playoff)
Division Winners: Colorado (95.0%), Texas (49.5%)
Wild Cards: Chicago (99.7%), Kansas City (44.2%)
Next Out: Oakland (39.7%), Houston (36.7%), Minnesota (22.2%), Boston (14.2%), Tampa Bay (2.0%)
Odds that these six all make the playoffs: 20.1% (down 10%; this race is opening up!)
Work is getting busy so I'll probably hold off on the NL for a day or two. If any NL teams want their Playoff Odds% or anything I have them, just not typed up, so you're welcome to message me.