Playoff Odds - 6/14/19
Jan 22, 2019 9:38:02 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 4 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 22, 2019 9:38:02 GMT -5
NL East | Record | WAR Rating | Proj. Wins | Playoff Odds | Bye Odds | Playoff Delta | EW Delta* |
NYM | 37-26 | 0.83 | 90.8 | 92.3% | 19.7% | +13.6% | +2.4 |
PIT | 32-31 | -0.02 | 81.3 | 20.8% | 0.5% | -10.4% | -1.0 |
MON | 31-32 | -0.14 | 78.5 | 9.4% | 0.1% | -41.8% | -6.4 |
PHI | 30-33 | -0.10 | 75.6 | 3.5% | 0.0% | +2.8% | +4.2 |
NL Central | |||||||
CIN | 34-29 | 0.26 | 88.4 | 77.4% | 7.9% | +30.0% | +4.2 |
STL | 34-30 | 0.20 | 86.7 | 67.5% | 4.0% | -17.7% | -2.8 |
MIL | 27-36 | -0.33 | 75.4 | 2.8% | 0.0% | -8.1% | -2.5 |
CHN | 26-37 | -0.87 | 65.9 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -2.7 |
NL West | |||||||
SDN | 44-19 | 2.06 | 104.5 | 100.0% | 96.8% | 0.0% | +0.2 |
ARI | 34-28 | 1.16 | 88.7 | 80.3% | 0.7% | +41.0% | +5.1 |
LAN | 31-32 | 0.62 | 82.8 | 33.0% | 0.0% | -1.1% | +0.2 |
SFN | 30-32 | -0.32 | 78.3 | 7.7% | 0.0% | -1.7% | +0.7 |
NL South | |||||||
WAS | 40-23 | 0.96 | 95.8 | 99.8% | 62.4% | +5.6% | +5.8 |
ATL | 29-35 | 0.05 | 76.7 | 5.0% | 0.3% | -13.6% | -2.9 |
MIA | 25-37 | -0.92 | 66.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -5.4 |
CAR | 23-41 | -1.79 | 60.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.9 |
* EW Delta is the change in Estimated Wins. A team with an EW Delta of +5.0 is a team that is forecast to have a final record 5 wins better than they were forecast with a month ago (in game time).
Swings (Playoff Delta / EW Delta):
Montreal (-41.8% / -6.4): What a godawful disappointing month for those plucky north-of-the-border Expos. They've gone 11-20, had their WAR rating fall from 0.9 (really good) to -0.14 (sub-par) and just generally had every damned thing go wrong for them. They still look 500ish and there are worse positions to be in. But it's rough to see that great first month wasted.
Washington (+5.6% / +5.8): Yeah, pencil this one in. Washington goes 22-10 in an otherwise weak division. Not only is missing the playoffs a 1 in 500 proposition for them, but with 62.4% of a bye they're looking well set up for the playoffs.
Miami (-1.5% / -5.4): Like the Expos, a great start with a bad follow-up. This last month they've been 8-24 (ouch!) though their WAR rating hasn't gone down as much as you'd expect, suggesting that they've played better than that record. If there's a silver lining it's that they look likely not to finish last in the division with their 5.2 expected win separation from Carolina.
Arizona (+41.0% / +5.1): Last month Arizona had the second best WAR rating in the NL, but was struggling with a 14-18 record, 10 games behind San Diego. Well they sure as heck have come on like gangbusters, going 20-10 and taking their WAR rating even higher. Now they're only 9.5 games behind the Padres! If Arizona keeps this level of play up (3rd in the PBL in WAR rating) they should be considered a very dangerous draw for a division-winner in October.
Philadelphia (+2.8% / +4.2): One of the reasons I'm starting to use EW Delta as well is because I want teams not in the playoff picture to still get attention. Philly's gone a very solid 17-14 this last month with a near-average WAR rating. They're quietly putting together a decent season so far.
Cincinnati (+30.0% / +4.2): Well, the Reds have finally bounced back. It only took a season and a quarter. This month they've gone 21-10, surging past the Cardinals for the division lead. Their WAR rating is a little lackluster but at least their record is in the right place.
Atlanta (-13.6% / -2.9): The Braves started the season decently, though not likely to catch Washington. They've had a rough 13-19 month, though their WAR suggests they're still a solid team. But the Nationals look like they may be getting out of reach.
St. Louis (-17.7% / -2.8): Bad timing for the Cards, having a bad month at the same time that the Reds are on a roll. It wasn't a bad month (15-16), and their Team WAR even slightly improved, but at 34-30 with only a decent WAR rating they're looking like a serious playoff contender but not a shoe-in. The NL's sudden shortage of serious 80-85 win teams looks to really work in their favor.
Chicago (-0.1% / -2.7): The Cubbies opened 16-16 with a -0.40 WAR rating, but this last month has been a disaster. They've gone 10-21 and look to be finishing in the mid-60s again.
Milwaukee (-8.1% / -2.6): A bad month for every NL Central team not from Cincinnati, Milwaukee's gone 13-18. Their WAR rating has actually improved to -0.33 which is better than the record, but it looks like this is not the year the Brewers break 500.
New York (+13.6% / +2.4): The Mets continue their strong play, going 19-12 and creating more distance from their competitors. They are course buoyed by Montreal's collapse, but the Mets are playing great ball with a +0.83 WAR rating. That their division has three decent teams in it doesn't work to their advantage, as odds are that one of them will go on a run, but they are fortunate that Pittsburgh is not its usual ferocious self.
Pittsburgh (-10.4% / -1.0): Pittsburgh actually had a non-terrible month, going 15-16 and raising their WAR rating closer to average. But their playoff odds drop anyways, a combination of the Mets' improvement and the fact that you're generally punished in playoff odds the longer you're at 500.
San Diego (+0.0% / +0.2): A week with zero percent playoff odds improvement! Only a +0.2 expected wins increase! A clubhouse in disarray? What do they have to hide? All this and more at 11!
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: San Diego (100.0% playoffs), Washington (99.8% playoffs)
Division Winners: New York (92.3%), Cincinnati (77.4%)
Wild Card Teams: Arizona (80.3%), St. Louis (67.5%)
Next Five Out: Los Angeles (33.0%), Pittsburgh (20.8%), Montreal (9.4%), San Francisco (7.7%), Atlanta (5.0%)
Odds That A Team Besides the Six Forecast Above Make the Playoffs: 61.4%
AL East | Record | WAR Rating | Proj. Wins | Playoff Odds | Bye Odds | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYA | 34-29 | 0.83 | 89.1 | 88.1% | 17.9% | -3.6% | -1.0 |
TOR | 30-33 | 0.21 | 79.2 | 11.5% | 0.4% | +1.5% | +1.6 |
BOS | 32-31 | 0.15 | 79.0 | 10.2% | 0.3% | +7.3% | +4.7 |
BAL | 27-36 | -0.84 | 70.6 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -0.7 |
AL Central | |||||||
CLE | 41-22 | 1.40 | 97.7 | 99.1% | 77.9% | +0.2% | -0.3 |
CHA | 37-27 | 1.04 | 88.5 | 74.5% | 6.2% | +57.2% | +8.1 |
MIN | 34-29 | 0.09 | 81.6 | 15.3% | 0.5% | -21.4% | -1.7 |
DET | 24-39 | -1.99 | 64.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -3.3 |
AL West | |||||||
OAK | 35-28 | 0.60 | 93.5 | 94.0% | 47.8% | +3.1% | +1.5 |
COL | 33-29 | 1.09 | 90.7 | 84.7% | 23.2% | +9.7% | +1.9 |
SEA | 25-37 | -1.84 | 64.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -4.0 |
LAA | 21-41 | -1.92 | 58.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.8 |
AL South | |||||||
TEX | 33-30 | 0.72 | 87.2 | 69.3% | 11.4% | -10.3% | -2.4 |
KCA | 33-31 | -0.23 | 83.4 | 34.7% | 2.6% | -9.4% | -1.3 |
HOU | 31-33 | -0.22 | 79.1 | 9.9% | 0.5% | -28.0% | -4.6 |
TBA | 31-31 | -0.74 | 78.7 | 8.3% | 1.0% | -0.7% | +1.1 |
Swings (Playoff Delta / EW Delta):
Chicago (+57.2% / +8.1): If there's one thing my sheet is always saying, it's that Chicago is the real deal. Yes sirree, totally called it . . . Awkward . . . Anyhow, the White Sox went 21-10 in this last month, vaulting to a WAR rating above 1.0 which is pretty damned good. It's not just that they won a ton of games; it's that they played magnificently to boot. Given that the AL South has yet to put together a solid 2nd team, Chicago's road ahead looks pretty good. What a massive jump in probability!
Boston (+7.3% / +4.7): Boston is proving the haters wrong, and by the haters I mean my sheet, having a very nice 17-14 month and with an overall positive WAR rating. Boston isn't necessarily looking like a playoff team, but they sure seem better than the bottom-feeder my sheet had them as.
Houston (-28.0% / -4.6): Houston's nice first month was followed by one comparably disappointing. They went 13-19, with a WAR rating falling from 0.25 to -0.22. They're not out of it yet, but the AL South looks pretty even right now.
Seattle (-0.4% / -4.0): The Mariners suffered through an 11-19 month, their Team WAR going from quite bad (-1.35) to 3rd worst in the league.
Detroit (0.0% / -3.3): Detroit went 12-19, a small improvement over last month and improved their WAR rating (impressive, given that almost all their good players are gone. But they're dropping hard in projected wins, if only because they're wildly underperforming their preseason forecast.
Texas (-10.3% / -2.4): Texas had a pretty bad month, going 15-17, even as they raise their WAR rating from 0.53 to 0.72. Despite a rough month their playoff changes didn't fall as much as you'd have guessed. This is partly because Texas' WAR rating suggests that they're still definitively the best team in the South, and partly because the other teams in the South are all struggling to challenge for the top spot.
Minnesota (-21.4% / -1.7): Minnesota's month wasn't so bad record-wise at 15-16 but they played like crap, dropping their 0.93 WAR rating to 0.09. The 21% drop wasn't as much due to a bad month and more to the fact that the White Sox went into overdrive.
Colorado (+9.7% / +1.9): Colorado went 18-12 and pulled their WAR rating above 1. The expected wins weren't too surprised, as Colorado was considered a strong team already. But now they're forecast with the 3rd best record in the AL, so things are looking pretty solid for them.
Kansas City (-9.4% / -1.3): Kansas City had a good record last month but a bad WAR; this month they went 16-16 and improving their Team WAR nearer to average. Part of their drop is just because it's bad to have a 500 month, but the other part is that the preseason forecast was quite bullish on them and that simply hasn't translated into their performance yet. But there's time left.
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: Cleveland (99.1% playoffs), Oakland (94.0% playoffs)
Division Winners: New York (88.1%), Texas (69.3%)
Wild-Card Teams: Colorado (84.7%), Chicago (74.5%)
Next Five Out: Kansas City (34.7%), Minnesota (15.3%), Toronto (11.5%), Boston (10.2%), Houston (9.9%)
Odds That A Team Besides the Six Forecast Above Make the Playoffs: 64.1%