Playoff Odds 6/29/48
Oct 29, 2018 11:34:01 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Tim_GiantsGM, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Oct 29, 2018 11:34:01 GMT -5
NL East | Record | Team WAR | Projected Wins | Playoff Odds% |
PIT | 47-29 | 4th | 99.1 | 99.7% |
NYM | 40-36 | 14th | 83.9 | 33.0% |
MON | 34-42 | 25th | 73.4 | 0.2% |
PHI | 30-46 | 28th | 68.0 | 0.0% |
NL Central | ||||
CIN | 40-36 | 6th | 91.7 | 89.5% |
STL | 42-34 | 9th | 88.2 | 70.4% |
MIL | 30-46 | 31st | 65.9 | 0.0% |
CHN | 29-46 | 30th | 63.0 | 0.0% |
NL West | ||||
SDN | 51-25 | 3rd | 102.9 | 100.0% |
SFN | 41-35 | 12th | 86.8 | 55.4% |
ARI | 41-35 | 15th | 85.9 | 49.8% |
LAN | 37-39 | 20th | 79.9 | 10.1% |
NL South | ||||
CAR | 40-36 | 5th | 86.6 | 54.2% |
WAS | 39-38 | 16th | 84.3 | 34.6% |
ATL | 35-41 | 21st | 78.3 | 2.9% |
MIA | 32-46 | 27th | 65.6 | 0.0% |
AL East | ||||
NYA | 44-32 | 13th | 91.9 | 86.0% |
BOS | 41-35 | 22nd | 78.9 | 2.2% |
BAL | 32-44 | 19th | 74.3 | 0.1% |
TOR | 34-42 | 23rd | 74.2 | 0.1% |
AL Central | ||||
CLE | 47-29 | 7th | 94.9 | 94.7% |
CHA | 42-33 | 11th | 86.4 | 33.7% |
DET | 34-42 | 17th | 74.3 | 0.1% |
MIN | 33-43 | 26th | 70.1 | 0.0% |
AL West | ||||
OAK | 48-28 | 2nd | 102.3 | 99.7% |
COL | 49-27 | 1st | 100.4 | 99.6% |
SEA | 30-46 | 18th | 68.3 | 0.0% |
LAA | 22-54 | 32nd | 47.2 | 0.0% |
AL South | ||||
TBA | 53-25 | 8th | 99.6 | 99.6% |
TEX | 44-33 | 10th | 91.8 | 84.9% |
KCA | 29-47 | 24th | 67.7 | 0.0% |
HOU | 28-48 | 29th | 65.4 | 0.0% |
NL Notes:
Pittsburgh (+5.6%): Pittsburgh has quietly been going strong, 17-8 since last Sunday, climbing from 6th in Team WAR to 4th
NY Mets (+7.4%): An interesting week, going 12-13 yet gaining in playoff%. What gives? Well first the team improved in performance, working from 17th in WAR up to 14th. Lastly, two teams that have been staying in the hunt have had bad months (the Dodgers and Braves) which made anyone on the bubble go up a bit.
Cincinnati (-5.7%): Another high performance low yield week. 12-13 and fell in WAR to 6th from 4th. They're still the obvious frontrunner in the NL Central (#6 in Team WAR after all), and I think the wins will come. Eventually. I think.
St. Louis (+12.9%): St. Louis is another team benefiting from the suffering of others. They jump 12.9% while only going 13-12 in the last four sims.
Arizona (+7.8%): Likewise. Only 13-12 with WAR dropping from #13 to #15.
San Francisco (+11.8%): A 14-11 week has them jump higher than Arizona, keeping quite in the playoff hunt.
LA Dodgers (-22.4%): A rough set of sims for the Dodgers has them going 11-15 and falling from #15 in WAR to #20. They're going to need to turn this around soon to have a shot.
Carolina (+7.8%): The Warhounds go 14-12 and keep inching their way up the ranks. They've fallen to #5 in WAR, but they still need to be taken seriously. The real question is whether or not the Nats or Braves can snap out of their bizarrely disappointing seasons.
Washington (+4.0%): Washington goes 14-13 but still manages to climb.
Atlanta (-18.9%): The hits just keep on coming; the Braves go 10-15 and fall to #21 in WAR. Nobody saw this coming.
NL Playoff Picture:
Extremely Likely (90%+): San Diego, Pittsburgh
Probable (50-90%): Cincinnati, St. Louis, San Francisco, Carolina
Definitely Possible (20-50%): Arizona, Washington, Mets
Not to be Counted Out (5-20%): Dodgers
Two teams have fallen out of the probable running, the Dodgers and the Braves. This still leaves 9 teams to fight for the six spots. Pittsburgh looks increasingly like the second bye team with San Diego.
AL Notes:
Yankees (-11.1%): This number is faulty, as it isn't considering winning the division (which is incredibly likely). That said, the Yankees went 12-13 and fell from #9 in WAR to #13. They'll almost certainly make the playoffs, but these are not last year's Yankees, at least not so far.
Cleveland (+10.6%): Cleveland keeps on cranking out wins, going 17-8.
White Sox (+12.8%): Chicago has a good week, going 14-10 and climbing from 14th to 11th in WAR. The real question is whether or not they can run down Texas, because with the Colorado / Oakland situation, only the #6 playoff seed is really available.
Texas (-9.3%): Texas didn't do that badly, going 12-12 and jumping from 12th to 10th in WAR. Their real problem is that the White Sox had a better week, and for Texas to make the playoffs they need to beat the Sox.
AL Playoff Picture:
Extremely Likely (90%+): Oakland, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
Probable (50-90%): Yankees, Texas
Definitely Possible (20-50%): White Sox
Not to be Counted Out (5-20%):
This race tightens up even farther, with three teams above 99% and six above 84%. With it almost impossible that the Yankees will not win their division, and it unlikely that the Rangers will catch the Rays, we're pretty much only watching the playoff picture in the AL to see 1) which of the White Sox and Rangers makes the playoffs and 2) which of Oakland and Colorado get that bye. It's pretty unlikely (but possible, maybe 30-35% chance) that the Indians will pass the Rays, meaning Tampa Bay probably has the second bye.