Post by MetDaMeats on Jul 4, 2017 17:24:50 GMT -5
I have a hot take that I've been thinking about for a little bit. Though I want to preface this by saying that since I don't have any picks until #69th overall in round two so I have absolutely no skin in the game. This is a pure draft philosophy based opinion.
I think there are about 4 position players and about as many pitchers who jump out at me as the best players in the draft. One of them (I wont name names here) jumps out as the best of the crop, but not so overwhelmingly that it would devastate a franchise to miss out on him . So there's a lot of uniformity of talent among the first 8 picks or so. So with all that being said, here's my take: If I were the Miami Marlins, I would put the first overall pick in the draft on the trading block.
Now, that hot take comes with a significant "unless" attached. It all depends on whether or not the Marlins have 10 to 15 million dollars available for the draft. If they do then it becomes silly to do anything but take the best two prospects you see, no matter what the cost. Then the Marlins can let the rest of the draft shake out as it will. But we should bear in mind that some players react to being chosen high in the draft by asking for significantly more than they're listed as desiring, so it could take upwards of 10 mill to get draft picks #1 and #2 signed.
However, if the Marlins have a less extravagant amount of draft cash, like say 7 million, chances are that it will play out one of two ways
A) Pick#1 and pick #2 will both net a blue chip prospect who'll ask for 4 to 5 mill. If you can't sign pick #1, the marlins get a comp pick (second overall in 2044) which isn't terrible. If they can't sign #2 that pick is gone with no compensation.
B) Pick #1 is a blue chipper, and pick #2 is a guy with a lower asking price (or even slot) who hopefully won't decide he's worth a ton of money once he goes second.
For my money option A) isn't a great deal. Guess what happens in 2044. You have two high picks again (probably) and probably not enough money to sign both. So you can continue to kick the can down the road, without actually gaining any prospects. And option B) just strikes me as wasteful. Why take a lesser player at pick #2 when you could trade down, get trade prospects now AND get the guy you want?
Now, I'm not sure if we changed the rule about trading Comp picks in the off season, but assuming we didn't, that means the only one of the two available to trade is the #1 overall pick. And if I were the Marlins staring at either of the options above, it's exactly what I'd do.
I think there are about 4 position players and about as many pitchers who jump out at me as the best players in the draft. One of them (I wont name names here) jumps out as the best of the crop, but not so overwhelmingly that it would devastate a franchise to miss out on him . So there's a lot of uniformity of talent among the first 8 picks or so. So with all that being said, here's my take: If I were the Miami Marlins, I would put the first overall pick in the draft on the trading block.
Now, that hot take comes with a significant "unless" attached. It all depends on whether or not the Marlins have 10 to 15 million dollars available for the draft. If they do then it becomes silly to do anything but take the best two prospects you see, no matter what the cost. Then the Marlins can let the rest of the draft shake out as it will. But we should bear in mind that some players react to being chosen high in the draft by asking for significantly more than they're listed as desiring, so it could take upwards of 10 mill to get draft picks #1 and #2 signed.
However, if the Marlins have a less extravagant amount of draft cash, like say 7 million, chances are that it will play out one of two ways
A) Pick#1 and pick #2 will both net a blue chip prospect who'll ask for 4 to 5 mill. If you can't sign pick #1, the marlins get a comp pick (second overall in 2044) which isn't terrible. If they can't sign #2 that pick is gone with no compensation.
B) Pick #1 is a blue chipper, and pick #2 is a guy with a lower asking price (or even slot) who hopefully won't decide he's worth a ton of money once he goes second.
For my money option A) isn't a great deal. Guess what happens in 2044. You have two high picks again (probably) and probably not enough money to sign both. So you can continue to kick the can down the road, without actually gaining any prospects. And option B) just strikes me as wasteful. Why take a lesser player at pick #2 when you could trade down, get trade prospects now AND get the guy you want?
Now, I'm not sure if we changed the rule about trading Comp picks in the off season, but assuming we didn't, that means the only one of the two available to trade is the #1 overall pick. And if I were the Marlins staring at either of the options above, it's exactly what I'd do.