Vasti and Kono: A Comparison and Reflection
Jan 25, 2017 16:56:26 GMT -5
Dustin Ackley, Texas Rangers, and 6 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 25, 2017 16:56:26 GMT -5
Sotan Kono is obviously the best hitter in PBL history, right? 900 home runs? What a monster. And yet there are some misguided fools who might think that Roberto Vasti is the better hitter. Let's talk about this:
The crux of the argument is that Vasti has way, way more WAR than Kono. Vasti has 148 to Kono's 119. About 13 of those are fielding; Kono's fielding cost almost 3 wins over his career where Vasti's defense was worth 10+ wins, having been an excellent fielder in his youth. But even still, that means that WAR thinks Vasti's bat was 16 wins more valuable. What gives?
Part of this is volume. Vasti's had a thousand more plate appearances than Kono; that's half the difference. Vasti's greater PAs come from hitting the league younger (21 vs. 22), being older (45 vs. 44) and having generally batted earlier in the lineup than Kono. That's not particularly dispositive, but it does count for something.
Let's talk about Kono for a second. I went through and figure out where Kono would fit on the leaderboards if he retired today in the modern MLB.
Things Kono was Awesome At:
Home Runs: 900 (1st)
RBIs: 2557 (1st)
Runs: 2258 (2nd)
2B: 710 (5th)
SLG: 587 (8th)
This paints a pretty strong picture. More home runs than anyone (by 138!), more RBIs than anyone (260 more than Aaron), 2nd all time in runs even though he wasn't an OBP guy, 5th all time in doubles and 8th all time in slugging. I think it's reasonably safe to say that, in the aggregate of his career he was the greatest power hitter of all time. Kono is to Hank Aaron what Hank Aaron is to Babe Ruth.
Things Kono was Really Good At:
WAR: 119.2 (12th)
OPS+: 159 (15th)
wRC+: 156 (17th)
12th in WAR is fantastic; that's Eddie Collins and Ted Williams above him and A-Rod and Gehrig just below him. OPS+ and wRC+ are rate statistics that consider him to be about the 16th best hitter ever. So first off, that's still really good. And let's not forget; Kono isn't Kono because he put up obscene 800 slugging years; he's Kono because he was so good for so long. Trivia question: how many times did Kono break 50 home runs? Once. How many times in the 40s? Thirteen. So if in quantity he hit for more power than anyone ever, in quality (which includes on-base as well as power) he's only ranked in the mid-teens.
Things Kono was Not Great At:
Walks: 1035 (105th)
Average: 300 (205th)
OBP: 359 (471st)
For a guy who got almost as many PAs as Pete Rose (#1 all time) you'd think Kono would have walked more but he didn't. The AVG and OBP can't be taken too seriously, as there were a lot of other eras that favored those. But still. 471st is pretty low.
So when all is said and done? Kono is an incredible hitter, one of the best ever. But for reference, let's compare him with Vasti, but in the opposite order.
Things Vasti was Not Great At:
Average: 309 (115th)
309 career is really good but not enough to hang with the big boys.
Things Vasti was Really Good At:
OPS+: 164 (11th)
wRC+: 162 (11th)
SLG: 549 (27th)
OBP: 408 (38th)
These are all rate stats. First, note the difference in slugging. 549 and 27th are respectable, but obviously short of Kono's 587 and 8th. But his OBP is damned good; 408 career is fantastic and 38th all time is nothing to sneeze at, light-years ahead of Kono's 359 and 471st. His rate statistics are notably better than Kono's, putting him 11th all-time instead of 16th.
Things Vasti was Awesome At:
Runs: 2342 (1st)
RBI: 2239 (2nd)
Home Runs: 742 (3rd)
Hits: 3915 (3rd)
BB: 2096 (3rd)
2B: 672 (5th)
WAR: 147.9 (5th)
We all know that Kono is the better power hitter, but let's just focus on Vasti for a moment. RBIs, 2nd all-time. Home Runs, 3rd all-time. Doubles, 5th all-time. Hits, 3rd all-time. Seriously, look. Is it just me, or is Vasti secretly one of the best power hitters in history, at least in quantity? He looks weak next to Kono, but the list of players with better counting stats in those four than Vasti is actually very small.
Now the stuff Vasti's amazing at. We know that Vasti walked a ton (3rd all-time) and his OBP and duration gave him a mammoth amount of runs (1st all-time). One of the best on-base hitters ever.
Combined? 147.9 WAR, which puts him behind Ruth, Bonds, Mays and Cobb. That's it.
Conclusion:
Kono is the better power hitter. He's also the more specialized hitter; if you like your players to be amazing at one thing, he's your man. He is, at least by most measures, the best power hitter of all time. But in the parts of his hitting that weren't power, he was only good.
Vasti is probably only the 4th or 5th best power hitter of all time. But he's also probably one of the most patient. There really aren't holes in his game. Look over those ranking again! He's in the top 5 of seven different very valuable all-time categories.
I think if you're considering fielding, Vasti is obviously better; 13 wins is nothing to sneeze at. But just for hitting, I think you have to realize that Vasti was the complete package. Not only does Vasti have better counting stats than Kono except for RBIs, HR and Doubles, the sophisticated rate stats (OPS+, wRC+, WAR) all have Vasti higher by a good margin. And where Kono is frankly mediocre (on-base), Vasti is one of the best ever.
If you like power more? Kono. If you like specialists over general quality? Kono.
Otherwise. I just don't see the argument.
The crux of the argument is that Vasti has way, way more WAR than Kono. Vasti has 148 to Kono's 119. About 13 of those are fielding; Kono's fielding cost almost 3 wins over his career where Vasti's defense was worth 10+ wins, having been an excellent fielder in his youth. But even still, that means that WAR thinks Vasti's bat was 16 wins more valuable. What gives?
Part of this is volume. Vasti's had a thousand more plate appearances than Kono; that's half the difference. Vasti's greater PAs come from hitting the league younger (21 vs. 22), being older (45 vs. 44) and having generally batted earlier in the lineup than Kono. That's not particularly dispositive, but it does count for something.
Let's talk about Kono for a second. I went through and figure out where Kono would fit on the leaderboards if he retired today in the modern MLB.
Things Kono was Awesome At:
Home Runs: 900 (1st)
RBIs: 2557 (1st)
Runs: 2258 (2nd)
2B: 710 (5th)
SLG: 587 (8th)
This paints a pretty strong picture. More home runs than anyone (by 138!), more RBIs than anyone (260 more than Aaron), 2nd all time in runs even though he wasn't an OBP guy, 5th all time in doubles and 8th all time in slugging. I think it's reasonably safe to say that, in the aggregate of his career he was the greatest power hitter of all time. Kono is to Hank Aaron what Hank Aaron is to Babe Ruth.
Things Kono was Really Good At:
WAR: 119.2 (12th)
OPS+: 159 (15th)
wRC+: 156 (17th)
12th in WAR is fantastic; that's Eddie Collins and Ted Williams above him and A-Rod and Gehrig just below him. OPS+ and wRC+ are rate statistics that consider him to be about the 16th best hitter ever. So first off, that's still really good. And let's not forget; Kono isn't Kono because he put up obscene 800 slugging years; he's Kono because he was so good for so long. Trivia question: how many times did Kono break 50 home runs? Once. How many times in the 40s? Thirteen. So if in quantity he hit for more power than anyone ever, in quality (which includes on-base as well as power) he's only ranked in the mid-teens.
Things Kono was Not Great At:
Walks: 1035 (105th)
Average: 300 (205th)
OBP: 359 (471st)
For a guy who got almost as many PAs as Pete Rose (#1 all time) you'd think Kono would have walked more but he didn't. The AVG and OBP can't be taken too seriously, as there were a lot of other eras that favored those. But still. 471st is pretty low.
So when all is said and done? Kono is an incredible hitter, one of the best ever. But for reference, let's compare him with Vasti, but in the opposite order.
Things Vasti was Not Great At:
Average: 309 (115th)
309 career is really good but not enough to hang with the big boys.
Things Vasti was Really Good At:
OPS+: 164 (11th)
wRC+: 162 (11th)
SLG: 549 (27th)
OBP: 408 (38th)
These are all rate stats. First, note the difference in slugging. 549 and 27th are respectable, but obviously short of Kono's 587 and 8th. But his OBP is damned good; 408 career is fantastic and 38th all time is nothing to sneeze at, light-years ahead of Kono's 359 and 471st. His rate statistics are notably better than Kono's, putting him 11th all-time instead of 16th.
Things Vasti was Awesome At:
Runs: 2342 (1st)
RBI: 2239 (2nd)
Home Runs: 742 (3rd)
Hits: 3915 (3rd)
BB: 2096 (3rd)
2B: 672 (5th)
WAR: 147.9 (5th)
We all know that Kono is the better power hitter, but let's just focus on Vasti for a moment. RBIs, 2nd all-time. Home Runs, 3rd all-time. Doubles, 5th all-time. Hits, 3rd all-time. Seriously, look. Is it just me, or is Vasti secretly one of the best power hitters in history, at least in quantity? He looks weak next to Kono, but the list of players with better counting stats in those four than Vasti is actually very small.
Now the stuff Vasti's amazing at. We know that Vasti walked a ton (3rd all-time) and his OBP and duration gave him a mammoth amount of runs (1st all-time). One of the best on-base hitters ever.
Combined? 147.9 WAR, which puts him behind Ruth, Bonds, Mays and Cobb. That's it.
Conclusion:
Kono is the better power hitter. He's also the more specialized hitter; if you like your players to be amazing at one thing, he's your man. He is, at least by most measures, the best power hitter of all time. But in the parts of his hitting that weren't power, he was only good.
Vasti is probably only the 4th or 5th best power hitter of all time. But he's also probably one of the most patient. There really aren't holes in his game. Look over those ranking again! He's in the top 5 of seven different very valuable all-time categories.
I think if you're considering fielding, Vasti is obviously better; 13 wins is nothing to sneeze at. But just for hitting, I think you have to realize that Vasti was the complete package. Not only does Vasti have better counting stats than Kono except for RBIs, HR and Doubles, the sophisticated rate stats (OPS+, wRC+, WAR) all have Vasti higher by a good margin. And where Kono is frankly mediocre (on-base), Vasti is one of the best ever.
If you like power more? Kono. If you like specialists over general quality? Kono.
Otherwise. I just don't see the argument.